Not for the first time, Ireland’s centre-left has been faced with a post-election dilemma: go into government with larger parties of the centre and centre-right or accept another spell on the opposition benches. In the past, the question of whether or not to enter coalition has led to deep division and even party splits, with the compromises involved proving too much to bear for some supporters while for others they were outweighed by the prospect of enacting parts of their political agenda.
This time, the decision appears relatively straightforward. On Friday Labour leader Ivana Bacik announced it was “unlikely” the party would go into government. The Social Democrats have yet to make a similar statement but all indications are that they will do so. Meanwhile, Green leader Roderic O’Gorman intends to start rebuilding his party in opposition.
Many will regret their absence. All three parties share a commitment to action on climate change that is lacking in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and also in some Independents who now seem likely to make up the next governing majority. Labour and the Social Democrats also propose a more interventionist role for the State in addressing the housing crisis and a more cautious approach to the tax cuts and other measures in the larger parties’ manifestos which have been criticised as fiscally imprudent.
A central plank of the proposition which both Labour and the Social Democrats put to the electorate was that they are parties that believe in going into government. Labour can also point to an impressive record of legislative accomplishments in previous coalitions.
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But parliamentary arithmetic matters. If either or both were to go into coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, they would be operating in an environment where the larger partners always had the option, if serious disagreement arose, of turning instead to Independents for support. That would be a very weak hand to play.
Labour and the Social Democrats will also be mindful of he recent experience of the Greens, scapegoated by their government partners and punished by voters despite being able to point to a record of delivering on many of the promises they had made. A smaller partner in the next government is unlikely to have as much leverage as the Greens did in the last one.
The decision to stay out, then, is due not to an excess of ideological purity but to an entirely rational assessment of the probable outcome, both legislatively and electorally. What would be inexcusable, though, would be if Labour and the Social Democrats, which share very similar worldviews, were to allow petty and often mainly personal inter-party rivalries to hinder co-operation on providing the effective and clear-eyed opposition that the country will need.
