Domestic politics have hibernated in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s five-year term expired in May 2024, but under Ukraine’s constitution elections cannot be held until fighting stops and martial law is lifted.
That started to change last March, when Zelenskiy’s approval rating shot up from 57 to 67 per cent in the wake of his mauling in the Oval Office. Three days later, the US vice-president JD Vance tried to contact Zelenskiy’s potential rival, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to London.
Zelenskiy had sacked Zaluzhnyi a year earlier and sent him to London, apparently because he resented Zaluzhnyi’s popularity. The last thing Zaluzhnyi wanted was to be recruited by the Trump administration as an alternative to Zelenskiy. He wisely refused to take Vance’s call.
Opinion polls have shown that Zaluzhnyi, who prevented a Russian takeover in the first days of the war, is the only person who could defeat Zelenskiy if a presidential election were held now.
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These two men, who worked together to ensure the survival of Ukraine, could compete in the presidential election that must take place when a ceasefire or peace agreement is concluded. The “battle of the two Zs” may never take place. Zelenskiy might be well advised to retire and preserve his legacy as a war leader.
Zaluzhnyi has given no indication that he wants to stand. A European diplomat compares him to the Roman military leader Cincinnatus, who devoted himself to the republic in crisis and renounced power when the crisis ended.
A presidential runoff between Zelenskiy and Zaluzhnyi would be a tribute to the vibrancy of Ukrainian democracy and perhaps the best possible outcome. The two men share devotion to Ukraine, but are opposites in character. Zelenskiy has demonstrated incredible energy and courage, but tends to be rude and abrasive.
“Zelenskiy’s popularity is not so much about personal support for him as support for his role as president,” says political scientist Olesia Yakno, director of the Ukraine Institute for National Strategy. “People understand that Ukraine would be worse off without him. They often dislike his personality but support him.”
Zaluzhnyi has the physique of a bear but is a calm and reassuring presence. As commander in chief, he was loved by the military rank and file. He has no political experience, but neither did Zelenskiy, a former television comedian, when he stood for president in 2019.
Zelenskiy’s approval rating fell from 65 to 58 per cent; the percentage of those who distrust him rose from 30 to 35 per cent. Those are respectable poll numbers regardless, and Zelenskiy still has a reasonable chance of being re-elected
Military credentials will be an asset in postwar elections, both parliamentary and presidential. Some fear a populist nationalist military leader may emerge – for example Andriy Biletskiy, a far-right politician who heads the 3rd Assault Brigade, or Robert Brovdi, an ethnic Hungarian soldier, politician and businessman whose call sign is Colonel Madyar. Both are media figures, but there are signs Ukrainians are tiring of the “TikTok army”.
Ruslan Borovskiy, co-owner of a drone factory in Lviv, fears that populists will exploit wartime experience to gain office. “We won’t get someone pro-Russian – Ukrainians are vaccinated against that – but we may not get someone worthy and qualified either. The loudest will get the most votes,” Borovskiy predicts.
Old-timers are resurfacing. Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskiy’s predecessor as president, is in pre-campaign mode. Poroshenko, the “chocolate king” owner of Ukraine’s largest confectionery company, publicises his support for the military and continues a long-running feud with Zelenskiy.
Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has reinvented herself as a traditionalist nationalist and buys advertising on messenger channels. But neither Poroshenko nor Tymoshenko is likely to stage a successful comeback.
Two events caused political stirrings this summer: Zelenskiy’s failed attempt to take control of the anti-corruption agencies Nabu and Sapo, and false hopes for peace raised by Trump.
On July 22nd, Zelenskiy’s Servant of the People party passed a law which would have given the prosecutor appointed by him power over the anti-corruption agencies, Nabu and Sapo. Ukrainians took to the streets in towns and cities across the country in the first demonstrations since the full-scale invasion.
The demonstrations were good-natured and humorous. Demonstrators were determined not to let politicians misuse the movement to promote personal ambition. They rejected pre-printed placards, instead creating a “ministry for cardboard boxes” which distributed cardboard and felt markers. “Democracy is when the government is afraid of the people,” was a popular slogan.
Zelenskiy probably wanted to thwart investigations by the agencies into his own entourage. Though he is not believed to be personally corrupt, he may have turned a blind eye to profiteering by some officials. Polls show that few Ukrainians encounter corruption in their daily lives, but a perception nonetheless persists that “higher ups” do not suffer from the war and rake in bribes or commissions on government contracts.
In December 2023, Liudmyla Marchenko, a deputy from Zelenskiy’s party, was filmed throwing bundles of banknotes over the fence when anti-corruption agents came to question her. Marchenko allegedly received payments to help Ukrainian men avoid conscription. She was expelled from the party and her case is pending.
Under pressure from the European Union and from the Ukrainian street, Zelenskiy quickly reversed the power grab, restoring the independence of the anti-corruption agencies. Ukrainians and Europeans heaved a sigh of relief and praised the political maturity of Ukrainian society. Zelenskiy’s approval rating fell from 65 to 58 per cent; the percentage of those who distrust him rose from 30 to 35 per cent. Those are respectable poll numbers regardless, and Zelenskiy still has a reasonable chance of being re-elected.
Much will depend on how the war ends. Vladimir Putin will want to sow chaos in postwar Ukraine, if possible by forcing Zelenskiy to sign an agreement that will be rejected by much of the country.
There are three possible scenarios. Putin and Trump could impose a bad agreement on Zelenskiy, which would diminish his chances of remaining in power. With European support, Zelenskiy may confound Putin’s determination to turn Ukraine into a vassal rump state. This would require robust security guarantees, a strong Ukrainian army and the freedom to choose the country’s alliances. If that proves impossible, Zelenskiy may have no choice but to continue fighting.
