Europe’s Visegrád Group is facing an uncertain future as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine aggravates growing differences between its four central European members.
Growing unease about Hungary’s stance on Russia prompted the Czech and Polish defence ministers to stay away from a meeting of Visegrád defence ministers in Budapest on Wednesday and Thursday.
Their absence followed open criticism of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, who bids for re-election on April 3rd, from one-time ally Jaroslaw Kacyznski, head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.
“If you asked me if I was happy, I would say no,” said Mr Kaczynski on Polish radio. “We will see what will happen after the elections and then this assessment can be finally made. But we are not happy.”
For Poland the final straw was Hungary’s pre-election snub of the Organisation for Security and Co-Operation (OSCE), which until now has provided its election observers there.
Budapest dropped the OSCE in protest at a list of its concerns, including “a systemic political bias and a virtual absence of opposition politicians in the programmes of the public broadcaster”.
For next week’s poll Hungary has turned to Ordo Iuris, a right-wing Catholic conservative Polish lobby group, rather than observers from the OSCE, which is currently headed by Poland and its foreign minister Zbigniew Rau.
Last week Czech defence minister Jana Cernochova cancelled her attendance at the Visegrád meeting, citing “regret that cheap Russian oil is more important for Hungarian politicians than Ukrainian blood”.
Polish defence minister Mariusz Blaszcack cancelled his attendance on Tuesday. Slovakia, the fourth Visegrád member, said it had “taken note of Hungary’s decision to postpone the meeting”. Budapest currently holds the rotating chair of the Visegrád group, founded in 1991 to organise political, defence and cultural co-operation in central Europe.
Military aid
Like its Visegrád partners, Hungary has voted in favour of most European Union sanctions against Russia but is Ukraine’s only EU neighbour to refuse military aid.
Mr Orban has refused to back energy sanctions either, saying they were “against Hungary’s interests” and “would mean that the Hungarian economy would slow down and then stop within moments”.
Russia supplies some 85 per cent of Hungarian gas and more than 60 per cent of its oil and Russia’s Rosatom Corp won a €12.5 billion contract to expand Hungary’s only nuclear power plant.
Called out last week over his stance on Russia by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Mr Orban accused Mr Zelenskiy of being “an actor with the knowledge of an actor” – although the Ukrainian president, like the Hungarian leader, has a law degree.
Last week Polish president Andrzej Duda refused to meet Mr Orban at a traditional day of Polish-Hungarian friendship. “This policy will be costly for Hungary, very costly,” said Mr Duda.
The falling out could have a knock-on effect on EU investigations into what Brussels sees as systemic efforts to undermine the rule of law in Poland and Hungary. The stand-off has lasted seven years, in part due to a mutual support pact by the two capitals.
