The announcement by European Parliament president Martin Schulz that he will not run for a third term has given a huge boost to Mairéad McGuinness's chances of becoming the parliament's next president.
Despite Schulz endorsing an agreement in 2014 that the presidency would automatically transfer to a candidate from the European People’s Party (EPP) in January 2017, all signs in recent months were that he would seek to remain in his position for another 2½-year term.
His decision to run in next year’s German federal elections removes the threat of a looming EU parliamentary battle.
While Schulz’s Socialists & Democrats, as well as the other main groups in the parliament, are still likely to field candidates, his exit from the race makes an EPP president more likely.
On Thursday, EPP chairman Manfred Weber confirmed his party would nominate its candidate in mid-December as per the 2014 agreement.
Not ruled out
Significantly, Weber refused to rule out running himself. The other candidates in the ring are French MEP Alain Lamassoure, Italian former commissioner Antonio Tajani and former Slovenian prime minister Lojze Peterle.
The EPP will now embark on a closed-door selection procedure, with Weber keen to secure consensus on the nominee rather than push the decision to a vote.
In what could be a good sign for McGuinness, he stressed on Thursday at a hastily convened press conference that the EPP needed to select a “convincing candidate”.
Crucially, the EPP nominee must secure the support of other groups in the 751-member parliament, as the group does not have a majority.
McGuinness is believed by many to have the best chance of securing the backing of non-EPP groups, as she is well regarded across the political divide and has proved a popular and articulate vice-president of the parliament, a position that has significantly raised her profile.
For Ireland, the prospect of the country securing its second European Parliament president following Pat Cox's tenure between 2002 and 2004 will be welcomed. But the reality is more complex.
Some EU sources suggest McGuinness’s nationality could go against her, given the perception in some member states that Ireland is too close to Britain at a time when Britain’s exit negotiations top the EU agenda.
No special deals
McGuinness has dismissed this. She told The Irish Times she was committed to an "EU27 approach" to the forthcoming negotiations, and said there would be no special deals for member states – a message she conveyed to Britain's Brexit secretary David Davis earlier this week in Strasbourg.
It seems wishful thinking, then, that having an Irish president at the head of the European Parliament during the Brexit negotiations could be an advantage for Ireland as it seeks to have its unique relationship with Britain recognised by member states.
If anything, McGuinness is likely to stress her neutrality and commitment to the EU first as she seeks the presidential nomination in the coming weeks.
Proving that the interests of all 27 EU member states trump national concerns will be imperative for whoever succeeds Schulz at the helm of the parliament in January.