What an intriguing Ipsos MRBI poll we have today in The Irish Times.
The two main parties are within a hair's breadth of each other. Both have climbed from their respective slumps (Fianna Fáil's is now in the distant past) to be separated by only one point, well within the margin of error. Fianna Fáil is at 29 per cent, Fine Gael at 28 per cent.
Pat Leahy's report on the poll findings is here.
There’s been a bit of a halt to Fianna Fáil’s gallop. That’s easy enough to read, although the party still looks primed to be the biggest after the next election.
What’s slightly more difficult to analyse is Fine Gael. The party is up one point since the last poll in December. It’s not a big deal, but it will be read by the party as a positive.
So why? Is it because of Enda Kenny leading the party or because he will soon not be leading the party? Is it the prospect of Simon Coveney or Leo Varadkar leading the party that has put a bit of pep in the Fine Gael step?
The only significant mover (ie outside the margin of error) is Sinn Féin, with a leap of four points to 21 per cent.
The party hasn’t exactly been treading water but hasn’t had a huge impact in the 32nd Dail. This poll will give it a fillip, that’s for sure, on the day of polling in the North.
What will most hearten Sinn Fein is that its core vote (including the don't-knows) is also up four to 18 per cent.
Pat argues there is little incentive for Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin to push for an election on these figures. That is true.
But when Fine Gael elects a new leader, there will be a short window during which it will get a bounce. The new leader could capitalise on that, on the calculation that the figure (which might be hugging 30 per cent at that stage) is as good as it will get for the party in this term.
The downside for a new Fine Gael leader is that a snap election might shore up party support but would almost invariably dump Fine Gael from government.
The new leader could also be future table quiz fodder: Who was Ireland’s shortest-serving taoiseach?
It's a bad poll for Labour, which is languishing at 4 per cent, while Independents and Others have also fallen two points to 18 per cent.
I think brand Independent is coming close to the end of its shelf life.
