Assembly election at a glance:
- 228 candidates competing
- Assembly now reduced from 108 to 90 seats
- 68 of candidates (30 per cent) are women
Prediction:
Predictions from the 18 Irish Times constituency profiles produce a forecasted result of:
DUP 33 seats (-5)*
Sinn Féin 23 (-5)
SDLP 11 (-1)
UUP 9 (-7)
Greens 2 (unchanged)
People Before Profit 2 (unchanged)
Traditional Unionist Voice 1 (unchanged)
Independent Unionist 1 (unchanged)
*Change on May 2016 Assembly election in brackets.
A health warning must be applied to this prediction, however. Added uncertainty is created by a reduction in the sizes of the constituencies and a question mark over how the “cash for ash” scandal will affect voters.
Certainly, Sinn Féin would expect to win more than 23 seats and to narrow the gap between it and the DUP, while the UUP and its leader Mike Nesbitt would expect to be significantly higher than nine seats.
Nonetheless, it does seem that the DUP and Sinn Féin again will emerge as the two main parties, with the DUP still dominating unionism.
Candidate breakdown:
DUP 38
Sinn Féin 34
Ulster Unionist Party 24
SDLP 21
Alliance 21
Greens 18
Traditional Unionist Voice 14
NI Conservatives 13
People Before Profit 7
Workers’ Party 5
Labour Alternative 4
Progressive Unionist Party 3
Ukip 1
Cista (Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance – formerly Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol) 3
Independent 22
