The decline in Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions has slowed, according to fresh data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), putting the State’s likely compliance costs at the higher end of estimates.
Provisional figures released on Friday by the EPA increase the likelihood that legally binding 2030 climate targets will be missed by a large margin after momentum achieved in 2023 was lost.
Ireland could have to pay out between €8 billion and €26 billion to its EU partners if it does not step up climate action swiftly, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council said in February.
Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions decreased by just 2 per cent in 2024, down from a 6.8 per cent figure the previous year.
RM Block
The EPA warned meeting national and EU commitments will be “extremely challenging”. Ireland’s national target is to reduce emissions by 51 per cent in 2030 compared with 2018. In 2024, greenhouse gas emissions were 12 per cent below 2018 levels. Separate EPA projections in May indicated a 23 per cent reduction by decade end.
Minister for Energy and Climate Darragh O’Brien told the Oireachtas Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy on Wednesday that the latest forecasts showed the country would at best cut emissions by only half the amount required by 2030.
But he accepted there was a legal requirement to meet science-based targets and to adhere to carbon budgets, adding he was not “raising the white flag” yet.
“We have to redouble our efforts to get as close as possible to our 2030 targets,” he added.
EPA director general Laura Burke said that although 2024 data is moving in the right direction, “it is not at the necessary scale and pace”. She added: “If Ireland is to meet our first carbon budget, a further 10 per cent reduction in emissions is needed in 2025, which will be extremely challenging.”
The EPA figures show a reduction of 1.1 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) compared with 2023, with reductions in most sectors – except for heating of homes and buildings. Energy including electricity continues to be the exception, with sustained reductions in line with targets.
Transport and agriculture, however, reversed positive 2023 trends with modest declines compared with targets in the Government’s climate plan and strict carbon budgets.
In total, 54Mt CO2eq were emitted last year – excluding substantial emissions from land use and forestry.
Energy industry emissions decreased by 8.9 per cent in 2024 to an all-time low of 7.2 Mt CO2eq. This was due to power generation using renewables (39.6 per cent) and increased imported electricity via interconnectors. It was also the first year that peat was not used in generation.
Agriculture emissions decreased by 1.7 per cent (0.3 Mt CO2eq), primarily due to a 2.9 per cent reduction in cattle numbers. In contrast, there was a 10.6 per cent increase in nitrogen fertiliser use.
Last year saw the first post-Covid decrease in transport emissions but that was only by 1.2 per cent decline, having increased by 6 per cent in both 2021 and 2022 and by 0.3 per cent in 2023.
Industrial emissions decreased by 4.6 per cent due to declines in coal and oil usage.
Emissions from buildings (residential, commercial and public) increased by 5.6 per cent due to a colder winter and increased use of fossil fuels.
EPA senior manager Dr Tomas Murray said: “Both agriculture and transport each require significant reductions of 5.6 and 15.5 per cent, respectively, in 2025 to meet reduction targets.”
The 51 per cent reduction by 2030 target “will be unattainable unless every sector meets their reduction target and sectoral ceiling”, he added.
