Deutsche Lufthansa said the war in Ukraine will cloud prospects for a long-awaited recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as fuel prices climb and flights are diverted to avoid shuttered skies.
Europe’s biggest airline cut its annual loss by two-thirds in 2021 as Covid curbs eased, according to a statement on Thursday. Earnings this year should show a further improvement, but the Russian assault makes it impossible to provide an estimate, the German company said.
“Major uncertainties regarding the dramatic developments in Ukraine and the economic and geopolitical consequences of the conflict, as well as remaining uncertainties regarding the course of the pandemic, do not allow to provide a detailed financial outlook,” the company said.
Shares of Lufthansa traded 4.1 per cent lower in early trading in Frankfurt and have fallen 12 per cent since Russian forces entered Ukraine, paring gains this year to 3 per cent.
Lufthansa is the first major carrier to provide an earnings update since the extent of disruption from the invasion became clear, with widespread airspace closures that upended travel in eastern Europe and closed down the shortest routes to Asia. Oil prices have surged above $110 a barrel (€99), pushing up kerosene costs and hitting consumers by increasing household bills.
Bernstein analyst Alex Irving said that “risks of exposure to the Russian sky remains high” for Lufthansa, mitigated by a relative lack of demand for business travel and routes to Asia following pandemic curbs.
Lufthansa posted an adjusted loss of €2.35 before interest and tax, aided by record cargo revenue. The figure beat its own guidance but fell slightly short of the average analyst estimate.
The carrier predicted improved earnings as well as free cash flow this year, with improvements from April onwards after a tough first quarter that was impacted by the omicron variant of Covid.
External Costs
Still, increasing external costs will impact the entire airline industry this year, Lufthansa warned. The carrier is currently hedged on 63 per cent of its fuel needs for 2022 at $74 a barrel.
While that’s better than many airlines it falls short of the position at low-cost rival Ryanair Holdings, which said on Wednesday that it’s 80 per cent hedged at $63 a barrel through March next year. Even then the Irish carrier faces extra costs of €50 million from the 20 per cent of fuel for which prices aren’t protected.
Capacity should be above 70 per cent of 2019 levels this year, improving from 40 per cent in 2021, Lufthansa said. The figure should reach about 85 per cent by the summer, with short- and medium-haul routes almost back to normal but inter-continental operations lagging behind.
February sales were higher than at any time since the start of the pandemic as omicron concerns faded, with bookings for the Easter and summer holidays now almost at pre-pandemic levels. Demand is particularly strong for destinations in the US and the Mediterranean, the carrier said.
The company said it’s still planning a partial sale or listing of its Technik maintenance arm in 2023. It reiterated that it aims to sell the AirPlus credit card service and the remainder of its LSG catering business once the market recovers and it can get better prices. – Bloomberg