Carbon emissions are likely to be down by about 9 per cent overall in Ireland this year due to the anti-virus measures constraining the economy.
It is also estimated that ongoing Level 5 lockdown restrictions will cut emissions by just half of the proportion witnessed during the first stricter lockdown between March and May, according to research carried out by global consultancy Sia Partners.
The firm, which earlier this year expanded into the Irish market with the purchase of Dublin management consultancy Pathfinder, has calculated or estimated the monthly emissions of a wide range of economic sectors using data for economic activity from sources including Eirgrid, the Central Statistics Office and Eurocontrol aviation group.
Sia estimates that the ongoing Level 5 period, due to end on December 1st, will cut Irish carbon emissions by 13 per cent, whereas the first lockdown cut emissions over that period by 27 per cent, lending weight to suggestions that the current round of measures is proving far less impactful in terms of curbing overall activity to fight the virus.
Sia has calculated that Irish emissions fell by 14 per cent during the initial, tentative period of economic reopening that followed the first lockdown, before settling on monthly falls of 5 per cent and 8 per cent over the summer. Following the 13 per cent fall estimated for Level 5, Sia calculates a further 5 per cent fall in the run-up to Christmas as the economy reopens.
The strictness of the Irish anti-virus approach in terms of discouraging travel is borne out in monthly emissions data for the aviation sector, which shows Ireland clearly decoupled from the UK in its handling of this economic sector over the summer.
The latest Sia calculations suggest Irish aviation emissions were down 70 per cent in September, having been down by as much as 90 per cent in the months following the first lockdown. As the UK aviation market reopened somewhat in the summer while Irish authorities continued to discourage travel, by July Irish emissions were still down 90 per cent on a monthly basis, but the UK drop had narrowed to 71 per cent.
The average monthly aviation emission drops in the UK fell below 60 per cent, much lower than the Irish falls of 63 per cent in August and between 70 and 76 per cent in September and October before Level 5.
Export economy
Sia calculates that Irish shipping emissions are down by just 3 per cent, while manufacturing emissions are down by just 5 per cent, as Ireland’s export economy continues to operate with high levels of activity in stable sectors such as IT and pharmaceuticals. Car emissions were down 20 per cent.
Sia's UK & Ireland managing director Irene Molodtsov says it collates Irish emissions data as part of the firm's climate analysis centre that helps it formulate advice for its multinational client base, which in Ireland includes Dalata hotel group, Icon Technologies, Facebook and Microsoft.
Ms Molodtsov says Sia, which picked up about 40 staff members in Ireland when it bought Pathfinder during the summer, aims to expand heavily in coming years. The firm has more than 1,600 consultants globally, and specialises in advising multinationals in sectors such as energy.
