Data centres in Ireland are projected to consume the same amount of electricity as two million homes by 2030 due to their accelerating demands and use of AI, a new report has suggested.
The report by energy analysts Wood Mackenzie, in collaboration with the energy company Pinergy, concludes that by 2050, electricity demand will grow by two thirds, reaching 59 terawatt hours (TWh). This will be driven in the short term by data centre needs.
Data centres are projected to consume 8.6TWh of electricity by 2030 due to their increasing demands and use of AI.
“This energy consumption is equivalent to powering two million homes, placing significant strain on the grid. However, as the grid capacity increases and electrification of heat and transport intensifies, the share of total power demand for data centres is expected to fall to 16 per cent by 2050,” adds the report published on Wednesday.
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According to figures from the Central Statistics Office last year, data centres accounted for 21 per cent of total metered electricity consumption in 2023, compared with 18 per cent for urban households and 10 per cent for rural homes.
The Wood Mackenzie report says Ireland could become a net exporter of electricity as early as 2030, enabled by offshore wind and new interconnectors.
Ireland’s energy transition “is unstoppable but its success hinges on renewables and the rapid expansion of electrification, especially in transport and heating”.
“In the long term, electricity demand growth will be fuelled by changing consumer behaviour towards low-carbon choices, particularly through EV adoption and electrification of heating systems in residential and commercial buildings,” it says.
As Ireland works to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, the report says the country must shift to a system powered by low-carbon energy sources to progress towards legally-binding net zero emissions targets set for 2050.
“Ireland’s energy transition is at a crossroads and we must invest in our future,” said Pinergy chief executive Enda Gunnell. “We’ve set ambitious goals and commitments, but this report makes it clear we must move from aspiration to urgent, tangible action.”
The planned €3.5 billion investment under the revised National Development Plan, earmarked for Ireland’s grid infrastructure was critical in providing necessary infrastructure, he said.
“A successful energy transition will not only reduce our carbon emissions and protect our environment, but it will also create new jobs, boost our economy and enhance our energy security,” Mr Gunnell added.
Renewables are on track “but at risk following delays to capacity buildout”, the report finds. It forecasts a contribution of 80 per cent of generated electricity from wind and solar by 2030, climbing to 93 per cent by 2050, with wind alone accounting for 77 per cent.
This will be enabled by a forecasted 56 per cent increase in onshore wind and a 166 per cent rise in solar power compared to current levels. Ireland, however, is projected to fall 4 gigawatts (GW) short of its 5GW offshore wind target by 2030 “as projects suffer delays and cancellations”.
EV adoption is on course to meet 2025 goals but falling short of 2030 targets by 35 per cent. Wood Mackenzie says the adoption rate must be accelerated by 54 per cent to meet 2030 targets. Heat pump adoption is 68 per cent behind 2030 targets – equivalent to 461,000 units – and lagging other European countries.
Globally, geopolitical turmoil is creating headwinds for the energy transition, said Lindsey Entwistle, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, with rising costs and uncertainty across energy supply chains. “Domestically, the sluggish adoption of critical technologies such as EVs and heat pumps risks delaying the [Irish] transition over the next decade.”
The report calls for accelerated grid infrastructure upgrades, deploying the latest energy storage solutions for flexible power supply and streamlining permits to unlock the full potential of renewables.
To support variable renewables coming onto the grid, 4.7GW of storage should be installed by 2030, it adds, more than doubling capacity in the next five years to support peak power demand and reduce curtailment.
“Without a robust and adaptable grid, Ireland cannot grow its economy and effectively integrate the increasing volumes of renewable energy that will power the country’s future,” Mr Gunnell added.
“The domestic economy is currently very vulnerable due to issues with the national grid, with demand set to grow significantly for electricity... Ireland’s energy grid is ageing and needs significant resources, urgent investment and deliverable actions to meet demands and opportunities that come with the energy transition.”
Increased renewables will not happen, the report says, without “addressing supply chain instability, port infrastructure limitations and planning uncertainty in getting offshore wind projects back on track”.
