One of the conspiracy theories circulating online about the current US egg shortage links the scarcity to Covid-19.
It suggests that a naturally occurring protein found in egg yolks protects against human against the virus, a solution that Big Pharma wants to suppress so it can keep selling us vaccines.
Of course it’s bunkum. But it reflects how disinformation, amplified online, now courses through almost every element of public life in the US.
The reality of the shortage is far more mundane, if no less devastating for the industry.
It stems from an outbreak of avian influenza H5N1, which is present in Ireland also, that has led to the loss of tens of millions of poultry and a massive slowdown in US egg production.
Combined with soaring feed, fuel and labour costs, this has seen egg prices more than double over the past year.
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The debacle is also reflective of the current polarisation in US politics. The soaring price of eggs was used by Donald Trump and JD Vance to bash the previous administration.
Last September, Vance stood in a grocery store in Pennsylvania, holding a carton of eggs, which he said was more expensive “thanks to Kamala Harris’s inflationary policies”.
No mention of the outbreak. The US government’s handling of the avian flu issue could have been criticised (Mexico hasn’t suffered to the same extent, because of a vaccine programme) but that wasn’t the point.
It was about using any tool on the shelf to convince the US electorate that inflation, and the higher cost of living was Joe Biden and Harris’s fault.
Now the price of eggs, the cost of living and the country’s stubborn inflation issues are Trump’s problems. And his policies look set to fan prices rather than tame them.
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Trumponomics is an economic experiment riddled with contradictions. He stood for election on a pro-growth platform but with ostensibly anti-growth policies. The interplay between tariffs and inflation, immigration controls and economic growth are key flashpoints to watch for.
Imposing blanket tariffs on imports is almost certain to trigger inflation. It’s one of the few things economists agree on. And Trump was elected to alleviate cost-of-living pressures not add to them.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady last month reflected the uncertain inflationary outlook.
Tariff increases will translate into higher production costs for US firms as they incur higher import costs or have to use more expensive domestic sources.
Many US importers of steel, for instance, won’t be able to switch to domestic suppliers when the new 25 per cent tariff on steel imports comes in next month, meaning they will have to suck it up, and, in many cases, pass on the increased cost to their customers.
Trump’s economic team will argue that the tariffs imposed during his first presidency weren’t inflationary but they were more limited in scope.
They were also imposed in an entirely different economic environment before supply chains were impacted by the pandemic and before the energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
When asked if tariffs would complicate the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, Fed chairman Jay Powell paddled through an answer.
“We don’t know for how long or how much, what countries,” he said. “We don’t know about retaliation. We don’t know how it’s going to transmit through the economy to consumers,” he said.
The market wobble in reaction to the announcement of US tariffs against Canada and Mexico last month was instructive on what business thinks.
But Trump sees trade as a conflictual, zero-sum game which the US is losing, hence the protectionist pivot.
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The other plank of this protectionist agenda, mass deportations and tighter immigration controls, will shrink the supply of labour, potentially denting growth.
US population growth is one of the main factors behind the US’s current growth momentum. And net immigration accounted for more than 80 per cent of the population growth over the last two years, more than twice the usual share.
One calculation suggests immigration policy under Trump will reduce US growth by up to 0.4 per cent this year.
Trump’s protectionist agenda is politically rather than economically motivated and comes with inherent tensions.
Ironically the new administration’s attempt to trim the federal government through mass firings and funding freezes is already said to be hampering the ability of public-health professionals to respond to the avian flu outbreak.
Trump’s threat of mass deportations could also in theory discourage farm workers from getting tested for the virus.
Trump’s tech bro Elon Musk also faces contradictions.
As a maker of electric vehicles and batteries, he has allied himself with an administration that is intent on reversing the previous government’s commitment to less carbon-intensive transportation.
Of course from this vantage point his support for Trump’s low tax, less regulation agenda – combined with his proximity to policymaking in Washington – has supercharged Tesla’s share price and Musk’s net wealth in the process.
But he has already clashed with Maga Republicans on immigration and the visa programme to bring in skilled workers to the US.
The first month of Trump’s presidency has been about shock and awe but sooner or later these policies will have to be measured against real outcomes.
