Glass half full for Guinness, half empty for Diageo

Sales of the black stuff are up, yet the rest of Diageo’s portfolio is struggling

Guinness is now the top beverage brand in Ireland, the top beer in Britain, and growing fast in the US. Photograph: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Guinness is now the top beverage brand in Ireland, the top beer in Britain, and growing fast in the US. Photograph: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Guinness is fizzing.

The black stuff enjoyed 17 per cent sales growth in the latest half-year, marking its eighth consecutive double-digit rise.

It’s now the top beverage brand in Ireland, the top beer in Britain, and growing fast in the US.

Guinness still has just 1 per cent of the US beer market, but Bank of America sees big growth potential, pointing to its dominance in New York and Boston and scope for a UK-style lift worth $500 million (€440 million).

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Unfortunately for Diageo, the rest of the drinks cabinet is less effervescent.

The group missed earnings expectations, scrapped its long-standing growth target, and is still recovering from a stock shock in Latin America. Scotch is sliding.

Tequila and Canadian whisky face tariff threats, and chief executive Debra Crew’s repair plan – $500 million in cost cuts and $3 billion in free cash flow from 2026 – is viewed with scepticism.

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Shares have almost halved from their post-pandemic high.

Investors are drinking in the Guinness story. They’re just not ready to buy Diageo.