The televised presidential debate is over. What happens next?
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will embark on a relentless seven weeks of campaigning and are likely to repeatedly visit the seven key states that could go either way repeatedly in the hope of convincing the few voters who could make the crucial difference.
Why are these states so important?
The electoral map of the United States paints a picture of clearly defined party and political preferences, with vast swathes of the interior immovably Red (Republican) while the Blue (Democratic) states are prominent in coastal states and big urban centres.
Donald Trump’s stunning win in 2016 was achieved by “turning” key states that Hillary Clinton’s campaign deemed safe, namely the “Rust Belt” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Conversely, Joe Biden’s narrow wins in Pennsylvania (1.17 per cent) and Georgia were instrumental in his defeat of Trump four years ago.
How does the American electoral system work?
Each state carries a given number of electoral college votes. A total of 270 votes is required for a candidate to be declared as winner. And given that a given number of states are reliably red or blue, part of the fun and intrigue of the election night is working out the “pathways” a candidate needs in order to reach that magic number.
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So which state does Kamala Harris need the most?
The very state in which she debated Donald Trump on Tuesday night: Pennsylvania. Her first big decision was her selection of VP pick and there was heavy speculation that she would choose Josh Shapiro, deemed a future Democratic leader by many but also, as governor of Pennsylvania, a politician who could give her the edge in that state. But she opted for Minnesota governor Tim Walz.
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And which state is key for Donald Trump?
In mid-July the polls and projections were so promising for the Republican candidate that his campaign managers openly used the word “landslide” in a magazine profile that may come back to haunt them. But that is when they believed he would be running against Joe Biden. The late entry of Kamala Harris has caused tremors through the Republican heartland.
Although deemed a “purple” state in that it is always close, North Carolina has only voted for a Democratic president twice since 1964. But Trump’s lead in that state has been erased and if he fails to win the state and the 16 electoral votes it carries, his pathway to the White House becomes exceedingly difficult.
Which is the most volatile state?
The most contentious state four years ago was Georgia, which Joe Biden won by 11,000 votes, an extraordinarily slender margin in a state of 3.7 million people. That result prompted Trump’s insistent statements that the election was stolen and led to the election interference legal charges.
The margins promise to be equally tight this November. It is too close to call and will remain so until after the election – when the fun could really begin.
