Former United States president Donald Trump has not been charged in relation to the attack on the Capitol on January 6th, 2021, or about efforts to hold on to power after he lost the presidential election.
By issuing what is known as a “target letter”, however, the special counsel carrying out an investigation into his activities in this context may be signalling that an indictment is close.
Under the US legal system, such a letter generally indicates formally that a person is under investigation and that this process is nearing completion. It will be up to a grand jury of citizens to determine whether Trump should be indicted based on evidence put forward by the prosecutor.
Generally, such a target letter provides the recipient with the opportunity to give evidence before the grand jury but this is not compulsory. Trump said on Tuesday he had been asked if he wanted to appear before the grand jury later this week. It seems highly unlikely that he will do so.
Olaf Scholz finally delivers on dynamic promise as firing of Germany’s finance chief blows up his coalition
Beijing parents keep an eye on blind date corner
10 takeaways from the night Donald Trump marched back to the White House
Germany’s coalition stands on a knife edge after Olaf Scholz fires finance minister
The investigation by special counsel Jack Smith into the events that led up to the riot by Trump’s supporters at the Capitol would appear to have a number of elements.
The former president, in his social media post on Tuesday, did not say if the letter set out any specific charges that he could potentially face.
Revelations from some of those interviewed as part of the process have suggested that the special counsel is looking not just at the attack on the Capitol but also on efforts to fundraise on the back of claims of election fraud as well as moves to manipulate the US electoral college system for determining the winner in a presidential election.
This involved claims that there were Republican “fake electors” who purported to set out that Trump and not Joe Biden had actually won the election. There was also a campaign to pressure then vice-president Mike Pence to reject electoral college votes for Biden when it came to certifying the final result.
[ Donald Trump says he is the target of a criminal inquiry into 2020 electionOpens in new window ]
It is unclear as to whether anyone else, other than Trump, has received a target letter warning that they are under investigation.
A key concern for Trump and his advisers, if he is indicted, is that any trial would be likely to take place in Washington – an area that tends to be less supportive of the former president than Florida where proceedings over his retention of classified documents will take place.
The big question will be what this all means for the 2024 presidential contest.
Trump is, by far, the frontrunner to secure the nomination of the Republican Party in the general election in November next year. But will the party ultimately back a candidate who may have to spend weeks in various courtrooms across the country rather than being on the campaign trail?
The former president is already facing two other criminal trials – over allegedly mishandling classified documents and regarding claims he was involved in falsifying business records to cover hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. Neither of these issues have affected him politically in the slightest so far – in fact, his poll numbers increased.
Trump’s fundraising committee said it raised $4 million in the 24 hours after he was indicted in late March by New York prosecutors and $6.6 million in the days after his indictment in June by the special counsel over the classified documents.
Most Republican politicians on Capitol Hill have continued to back him – in the knowledge that he controls a solid chunk of party supporters. Some insist he is the victim of a “weaponisation” of the justice system.
Even many of his rivals for the Republican nomination have held back from attacking him openly. One such person, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, last month urged all in the field to promise to pardon Trump if elected.
One candidate, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, repeated a call for Trump to suspend his campaign for the White House.
On Tuesday as Trump faced a potential third criminal indictment, however, many Republican candidates remained silent.