Polls suggest Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru will battle Reform UK to end a century of Labour political dominance of Wales, at Senedd elections next May.
Plaid representatives at its upbeat annual conference – held over the weekend in Brangwyn Hall in Swansea – all seem on message: don’t bang on too much about independence; keep the focus on voters’ daily lives and be the government-in-waiting.
Yet every so often, a sense of giddiness among its rank-and-file membership breaks through. And who could blame them? Plaid is 100 years old, yet only now is it poised for perhaps its finest hour: its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is favourite to be the first minister.
So, for the giddiness. On Saturday morning, three Plaid delegates notice each other in a queue at the hall’s cafe. One holds a Welsh red dragon flag, one wears a Palestinian keffiyeh, while the youngest is draped in the black and white flag of Cornwall.
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As they wait for coffee, the red dragon holder starts singing a jolly song about how “20,000 Cornish men will know the reason why!”. It is the Song of the Western Men, a famous Cornish anthem. The others join in to regale their Celtic nationalist kin.
Hours later, they would all take part in an end-of-conference rendition of the Welsh anthem, Land of My Fathers, that would almost take the roof off Brangwyn Hall. The seismographs are twitching. Wales is on the verge of a political earthquake that some think could even sweep the UK’s Labour prime minister Keir Starmer from office.
An early salvo happens this month in the Caerphilly byelection where Plaid and Nigel Farage’s Reform will go head-to-head to win a seat in a valleys region that was always staunch Labour. Plaid veterans admit that Reform could have the edge if the turnout is high, but the Welsh party’s old-and-young activists are motivated and hopeful.
“This moment is the test for the Wales we want to see in future,” says Delyth Jewell, the party’s deputy leader. A Senedd member, Caerphilly is her hometown. “Plaid Cymru versus Reform – I can’t imagine two more extremely different visions for our nation.”
Whatever the result in Caerphilly, Jewell says “something is shifting” in Welsh politics. “And there is a real sense that it is shifting in our favour,” she says.
Polls suggest she might be right but with seven months still to go, the result next May is far from certain. Plaid, for example, is far behind the other parties when it comes to fund raising. The only thing that looks nailed on is that Labour’s dominance is over.
A bombshell YouGov poll in recent weeks put Plaid on 30 per cent of the vote, ahead of Reform on 29 per cent with Labour way behind on 14 per cent.
On those numbers, Plaid would probably lead the next Welsh government if it was replicated at May’s election. It might need a diminished Labour’s help to govern and pass a budget.
Yet there is also uncertainty as Wales shifts to a new electoral system. Until now, it has elected 60 members of the Senedd (MS), two-thirds in first-past-the-post constituency votes, with the rest chosen under a regional list system using the D’Hondt method – a complex calculation of parties’ average proportions.
In May, the Senedd will increase to 96 members – six each for 16 large regions (each region is roughly two Westminster constituencies combined). All seats will be allocated from party lists via D’Hondt. Voters will no longer select candidates, just parties.
“This is new to everybody” says Liz Saville-Roberts, a senior party member who lead’s Plaid’s four MPs in Westminster. “There is no familiar sense as to how it will work out. But we think it gives us the potential to win at least one seat in 15 of the 16 areas.”
Plaid has traditionally been strong in the Welsh-speaking regions of the west and parts of north Wales. To win power, it must grow in cities and the working-class old Labour heartlands of the south Wales former coal-mining valleys, where Reform also looms.
“The weight of responsibility is exciting,” says Heledd Fychan, a South Wales Central MS who was educated at Trinity College in Dublin. “We’re a century old – this was a long time coming. We’ve been working on our manifesto for three years. Government is our focus. This could be our chance and we can’t mess it up.”
Attendance at Plaid’s Swansea conference is small compared with those of the other bigger parties, but expectations are huge as realisation dawns of what may be about to happen. One attendee who has been to several Plaid conferences comments on how many non-party observers – read lobbyists – have signed up to attend this year.
Most debates in the main hall or on the fringe pivot between English and Welsh – there are translation kits provided at the door. Many exhibitors are charities or non-governmental organisations, but a few energy company staff also roam the halls.
In his leader’s speech, Iorwerth’s unveils a flagship policy to give up to 30 hours free childcare to all children from nine months to the age of four, a huge upgrade on the current system. Party strategists brief that it will cost an extra £100 million (€115 million) each year over a five-year roll-out – £500 million annually by the end.
That would eat up much of Wales’s fiscal wiggle room. Iorwerth’s party faithful in the room love the new policy. Plaid is unabashed as a left-wing outfit. Yet it is also choosing to play down the focus on a Welsh independence debate before the May election, as it courts Labour voters, many of whom might be unionists.
Outside the hall, conference attendees chatter about Iorwerth’s speech afterwards. Roger Jones from Swansea is handing out free copies of the communist Morning Star newspaper. He says he has always been a Labour voter – “except for under Blair” – but he has voted Plaid in the past and may do so again in May.
“The valleys are desolate. Decent people in those areas have lost all hope. That’s why we have the rise of Reform. What Plaid have to do is win over the Welsh working class,” says Jones, whose late father was from Terenure in Dublin.
Mari Mitchell from Brechfa, a village in a forested area of Carmarthenshire in the south, hands out leaflets with fellow campaigner Havard Hughes. They are opposed to onshore wind farms, which they say blight the area. Mitchell says she has “always” voted Plaid, but she notes that Reform has promised to stop wind farms.
Yet Mitchell seems nervous of Farage’s right-wing party: “I think I might still vote Plaid because the alternative is frightening.” Hughes thinks Reform might take half the seats in their region.
Jewell, who is sure to be a senior Welsh minister if the party ends up in government, says Plaid would “never countenance” co-operating with Reform but would be willing to work with other parties, although she says it might be difficult with Welsh Tories.
“The new system will require us to find a way to work together for the common good. We just have no idea of what the form of that might be.”
Whatever is coming down the track for Wales in May, it will signify change. Plaid plans to be at the heart of it.
