Even by the rambunctious standards of recent Scottish politics it was a particularly tumultuous week in Edinburgh and its Holyrood parliament. It began with a ringing mobile phone.
At 7.30am on Monday Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, Humza Yousaf, returned a call from Ash Regan, the sole member of the Scottish parliament (MSP) for Alex Salmond’s nationalist Alba party. Regan was once an SNP minister and leadership contender, before she defected. She and Yousaf were not close, but on the call she pitched to save his job.
Yousaf had spent the weekend trying to rescue his premiership after bungling the ending of the SNP’s government partnership with the Scottish Greens, who promised to seek revenge by unseating him in a confidence vote. The Greens rebuffed Yousaf’s attempts to patch things up, leaving Alba and the Holyrood vote of Regan as his only route to cling on – the SNP is just short of a majority.
Regan wanted backing for her bill seeking more independence powers for Holyrood and a return to “competent” government. She also wanted Yousaf to protect “the rights of women and children”, code for a tilt away from transgender rights policies popular with the Greens but not with her and many voters. Salmond, in the background, was also hoping the SNP might agree an electoral pact.
The first minister, guided by the party’s establishment, was wary of any deal with Alba and, by extension Salmond, its former leader who left after a bitter falling out with SNP matriarch Nicola Sturgeon. Yousaf accepted his fate. The end of his short stint in power was near.
Journalists were summoned for noon at Bute House, the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh’s New Town, 3km from parliament. They were ushered into the drawingroom, now known among Scottish media as the “resignation room”. Here last February, in front of the fireplace, and weeks before she became embroiled in a financial scandal, Sturgeon had quit as first minister. Now, barely 14 months later, her “continuity” successor, Yousaf, did the same.
“I clearly underestimated the level of hurt and upset my actions caused Green colleagues,” he admitted. “While a route through this week’s motion of no confidence was absolutely possible, I am not willing to trade my values and principles, or do deals with whomever, simply for retaining power.”
Over the next few hours senior members of the SNP, including Stephen Flynn, leader of its Westminster group of MPs, urged John Swinney, a party veteran, to replace Yousaf. Later on Monday afternoon, more than 500km away in London where he was at an event marking 25 years of devolution, the softly-spoken Swinney confirmed he was giving the matter “careful consideration”.
To many outside the SNP, and a few inside it too, the rush to anoint Swinney smelled of an establishment stitch up. The party is renowned for its “men in grey kilts” back room power brokers.
“What will Kate do?” wondered many, referring to Kate Forbes, whom Yousaf had narrowly defeated in a brutal leadership contest last year after Sturgeon quit. There was lingering tension between them. She returned to the backbenches where she was viewed as the SNP’s next leader-in-waiting.
By Tuesday morning Forbes had effectively thrown her hat into the ring again when she confirmed she was considering a bid, backed by a few high-profile SNP figures such as MP Joanna Cherry. But while Swinney, who was Sturgeon’s deputy, had widespread support among MSPs, Holyrood backing for Forbes was more muted.
Many MSPs were turned off by her aggressive campaign against Yousaf last year, which was sparked by a pile-on against her from senior SNP figures over perceptions of her socially conservative positions on issues around marriage and sex – she is in the evangelical Free Church of Scotland. Yet she remains popular with voters and many ordinary party members, who see her as a new broom.
Forbes’s main supporters, including MSPs Michelle Thomson and Ivan McKee, hit the airwaves on Tuesday to drum up support. But her main strength lay in polling that showed she was by some distance the most popular potential leader of the SNP with the wider public. The 34-year-old is acknowledged, even by her critics, as probably the most talented politician in the party.
A standoff ensued throughout Tuesday between her camp and Swinney’s, but behind the scenes they were in talks. Swinney, sources said, had been assured by party power brokers he would stand unopposed. Forbes had other ideas and if it came to a vote of members might defeat him. Yet if she lost a leadership bid for a second time it could ruin her career.
Throughout Wednesday Forbes kept everybody guessing and word came over that Swinney’s camp was nervous. Meanwhile, in Holyrood, MSPs gathered for a confidence vote in the government, due at 2.50pm. It was destined to fail because the Greens would not support it now Yousaf had quit.
MSPs wandered through the Garden Lobby between their offices and the airy parliament chamber wondering what would happen next. “Nobody wants to see that again,” said one senior SNP MSP, referring to last year’s bitter leadership contest. “It’s an election year. We have to avoid division.”
Another SNP MSP told The Irish Times that they believed Forbes should stand aside in favour of Swinney as a unity candidate: “A lot of us are angry at her over what happened last year. People like her think the party owes her something. It doesn’t. It’s a time for loyalty.”
At 2.30pm on Wednesday a media pack swarmed around Sturgeon in the Garden Lobby as she made a rare appearance at Holyrood – every vote counted in the confidence debate. She refused to back any contenders but warned whomever put their names forward not to talk down other candidates.
A minute later the pack swarmed around Swinney and then Forbes, who both declined to reveal their hands. Inside Holyrood’s light-filled chamber the Labour motion to end the government failed but opposition leaders jibed at the SNP over its internal rivalries that were now playing out.
Forbes sat directly behind Swinney, almost metaphorically on his shoulder, as she tapped away to somebody on her mobile phone throughout the debate. It seems a deal between her and Swinney was agreed sometimes on Wednesday: she would back down and let him run unopposed.
At 10.30am on Thursday, Swinney held his campaign launch to formally declare his bid for the SNP leadership at the Grassmarket Community Project in Edinburgh’s Old Town. Senior party figures such as cabinet member Angus Robertson sat in the front row. Forbes, who had brought her child to the doctor late the previous evening over a minor incident, watched it live from her Edinburgh flat.
Swinney promised to unify the party. He made a point of praising Forbes publicly and promised her a “significant role” in his team. The return of her previous finance portfolio, perhaps?
At 1.45pm on Thursday Forbes confirmed she would not challenge Swinney and backed him, hinting they had agreed to put the economy at the heart of the SNP’s minority government programme. She also suggested that she would continue to speak her own mind in government.
“It’s the dream team,” texted one elated SNP MSP, who had previously expressed concern to The Irish Times over the possibility of a divisive leadership battle.
Nominations remain open until Monday, although it would be a big surprise if another challenger to Swinney emerges. He could be the SNP’s new leader by Tuesday morning and soon afterwards Scotland’s seventh first minister since devolution in the late 1990s.
He will lead the SNP into difficult Westminster elections this year, and a knife edge vote for Holyrood in 2026, when it is expected to face a strong challenge from Labour.
Forbes, meanwhile, appears destined for a return to Scottish frontline politics and perhaps another tilt at the leadership in future.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Our In The News podcast is now published daily - Find the latest episode here
