Backbench Tory MPs have been warned by a top party strategist that “divided parties fail”, after a new poll suggesting the Conservatives are on course for a historic landslide defeat was used by right-wing rebels to call for the government to swing further to the right.
Isaac Levido, the Australian political strategist who is advising Number 10 on the next election, met MPsat a fraught meeting in Westminster on Monday evening of the powerful 1922 Committee of backbench Tories. The gathering was preceded by a separate meeting of MPs on the right flank of the party, who are trying to force prime minister Rishi Sunak this week to toughen anti-immigration legislation that they say is essential to their electoral prospects.
Mr Levido was due to present his own polling to the 1922 grouping, but the mood among Conservative MPs was already restive after a damning constituency-by-constituency poll by YouGov. That survey, published in the Daily Telegraph and paid for by a mystery party donor group, suggested Labour under Keir Starmer is on course for a 120-seat majority.
The pollsters surveyed 14,000 people across every constituency. The sweeping turnaround they predicted, with the Tories winning nearly 200 seats fewer than 2019, would represent the greatest British political reverse since 1906.
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Mr Levido warned backbenchers the people who organised the poll were “undermining” the party and had “thrown in the towel” ahead of the election this year.
The Conservative collapse predicted by YouGov would see a swathe of Tory big beasts lose out. Up to 11 cabinet members, including chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt and education secretary Gillian Keegan, would be dumped by voters.
Others set to lose their seats include the attorney general Victoria Prentis, former party leader Iain Duncan Smith and Tory party deputy chairman Lee Anderson. Minister of state in the Northern Ireland Office, Steve Baker, would also be defeated.
Among those tipped to cling on, but clearly in danger if sentiment deteriorated, is Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. His majority would be shaved to 1 per cent leaving him vulnerable to tactical voting between Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters.
Labour would rebuild its so-called Red Wall in the north of England while the Liberal Democrats would topple Tory incumbents in several seats in the affluent southeast. The poll also predicted the Scottish National Party would lose half of its seats in Scotland, while the Liberal Democrats would more than quadruple their 2019 showing with about 45.
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Mr Sunak played down the poll, saying only the numbers on election day count. Mr Starmer told Labour supporters to ignore the survey and “fight like we’re 5 per cent behind”.
Lord David Frost, the hardline Brexiteer who said he helped to “shape and analyse” the poll results, warned the numbers showed there would only be “smoking rubble” left of the Tory party unless it swung to the right on issues such as immigration.
The YouGov poll was paid for by a group of donors under the previously unknown banner of the Conservative Britain Alliance. Senior party members speculated that the poll was timed to frighten Tory rebels into pressuring the government further on immigration.
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