The Conservative party “has had it” and the next British government will likely be led by Labour, according to the United Kingdom’s foremost elections sage John Curtice.
The University of Strathclyde professor, who is revered in UK media for his accurate assessments of the political landscape, says the Conservatives would not be able to sustain a minority administration in a hung parliament. They are 18 points behind Labour in the polls.
Curtice also suggests Labour could win an overall majority with a smaller lead than polls suggest it needs, although uncertainty over the extent of its comeback in Scotland could yet cloud the picture for Keir Starmer’s party.
Firstly, they [the Conservative party] are still lagging way behind and there has been almost no progress under prime minister Rishi Sunak towards clawing it back
— Prof John Curtice
The professor told The Irish Times that the odds of the Conservatives returning to power in the general election expected next year are low for two main reasons.
“Firstly, they are still lagging way behind and there has been almost no progress under [prime minister Rishi] Sunak towards clawing it back,” he says. “The second reason is that they face an asymmetric contest. They have no friends in parliament. They wouldn’t be able to sustain a minority government in a hung parliament without support from the SNP or the Liberal Democrats, who won’t give it. I don’t think even the DUP would support the Conservatives, because they were double-crossed the last time. I think they [the Tories] have had it.”
He says the “real question” in British politics is not whether Labour or the Conservatives would lead the next administration, but whether Labour manages to govern on its own with an overall majority.
“On a standard model of arithmetic, you need a 12-point Labour lead in the polls for them to get a majority of one,” says Curtice, referring to the peculiarities of the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. “The difference between 18 points [where Labour is now] and 12 is not all that great.”
He suggests, however, that it may still be possible for Labour to win an overall majority with a lead of eight or nine percentage points. Much will depend on how it does in Scotland, where Labour has just one seat but is targeting 20 or 25 at the next election. He says political observers will also learn more about the distribution of Labour’s vote across Britain in local elections due to take place in some, but not all, councils next May.
Much political commentary in the UK recently centres on whether the current Labour poll lead presages a situation similar to the general election of 1992, where the Tories snatched an unexpected victory, or 1997 when Labour’s poll lead held and Tony Blair won a landslide.
Curtice, however, agrees there was possibly more of a parallel to be drawn with the Irish general election of 2011 when Fianna Fáil was decimated after the Republic had to enter a sovereign bailout.
Curtice also notes the enduring impact of the ‘Partygate’ scandal around the administration of former prime minister Boris Johnson
“That is not an unimportant point. In British electoral history, no government that has presided over a fiscal crisis has gone on to have success at the ballot box,” he says, referring to the upheaval last year under former prime minister Liz Truss.
Curtice also notes the enduring impact of the “Partygate” scandal around the administration of former prime minister Boris Johnson. Staff at 10 Downing Street were later found to have breached the government’s rules during the pandemic. Curtice says this would be a huge issue for voters looking to punish the Conservatives at the next election.
The situation in Scotland is more difficult to assess, according to the professor. The most recent opinion polls this week suggest a weakening of the swing away from the Scottish National Party and towards Labour.
A weaker swing still may not be enough for the SNP to hold on in the byelection next month for the Glasgow suburban seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West. But he says Labour still “needs a good win” there to sustain the narrative that it is on course for a big result in Scotland at the general election next year.
Blair was popular, Starmer is not. He is a prosecution lawyer. But political leadership is not about finding holes in the other side’s argument, like implementing a legal brief. It is about crafting your own message
— Prof John Curtice
Curtice says question marks also remain over the Labour leader’s ability to communicate a bigger vision for Britain to voters, instead of just picking holes in the Tory performance.
“Blair was popular, Starmer is not. He is a prosecution lawyer. But political leadership is not about finding holes in the other side’s argument, like implementing a legal brief. It is about crafting your own message. Can Starmer write his own brief?”
One thing running in the Labour leader’s favour, however, is that his main opponent, Sunak, “can’t do the vision thing either”.
