Middle EastAnalysis

Road to peace in Gaza littered with potential potholes

Second phase of ceasefire is more complex and entails disarming Hamas and handing over control of Gaza

People wave US and Israeli flags in Tel Aviv on Thursday following the announcement of a new Gaza ceasefire deal. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images
People wave US and Israeli flags in Tel Aviv on Thursday following the announcement of a new Gaza ceasefire deal. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

Even before the formal Gaza ceasefire agreement was signed at Sharm el-Sheikh, the Israeli army began redeploying from areas inside Gaza, stressing that the withdrawal will be measured and gradual, with troops remaining on a high state of alert to prevent any last-minute surprise militant attacks.

Residents of Gaza were also warned not to return to Gaza City until the military redeployment is complete.

The ceasefire breakthrough was greeted across the country with a huge sigh of collective relief. The hostage issue has dominated every fabric of life in Israel for more than two years.

The parents and relatives of the living hostages have become household names: the names and stories of the captives are known to everyone.

Celebrations, which began in the early hours of the morning in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square, continued throughout the day. The champagne was flowing and supporters arrived to join the dancing and singing.

The excitement, in advance of the expected return of the captives at the weekend, is palpable but no one is under any illusion that the recovery process, after more than 730 days in captivity, will be easy.

Three hospitals in central Israel are gearing up to process the initial absorption of the living hostages – believed to number 20 of the 48 captives.

No one knows what their medical and psychological condition will be. The medical teams are expecting cases of severe malnutrition.

Hamas has already made it clear that it does not know the location of all the deceased hostages. In cases where Hamas cannot locate the bodies beneath the rubble it is believed a joint team of Israeli, Qatari and Egyptian officials will be allowed to conduct searches using advanced engineering equipment.

The Israeli security cabinet and full cabinet will convene later on Thursday to approve the agreement. A majority is guaranteed despite opposition from the far-right ministers who wanted the war to continue until the “total defeat” of Hamas and the expulsion of the Gaza population.

The far right also oppose the release of Palestinian prisoners serving life terms for the murder of hundreds of Israeli civilians. The ceasefire agreement may well prompt to the two far-right parties to quit prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition, forcing elections early next year.

But this will only occur after Israel enjoys a few days of euphoria, celebrating the expected release of the hostages, the end of the war and the visit of US president Donald Trump.

The second phase of the ceasefire is more complex and full of potential potholes.

According to the Trump 20-point plan, Israel and Hamas will continue mediated talks on the remaining elements of the plan.

These include the demilitarisation of Hamas and Gaza; the return of Palestinians who left during the war, including Hamas members; and the establishment of a temporary technocratic Palestinian committee to oversee public services, monitored by an international “Peace Council” led by Mr Trump and former British prime minister Tony Blair.

Later discussions will address Washington’s demand that, after carrying out unspecified reforms, the Palestinian Authority eventually take over Gaza, a requirement that contradicts Mr Netanyahu’s public statements.

Phase one of the ceasefire enjoys a widespread consensus in Israel but the government is still not convinced that the international community will ensure that Hamas will never be able to threaten Israel again.

Last year Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon, brokered by five countries, to end the fighting but since then has carried military strikes every week to prevent Hizbullah reasserting a military presence.

Will the same scenario play out in Gaza?