The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has resigned from prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition, leaving him with a wafer-thin majority of 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset parliament. On Thursday a second ultra-Orthodox party, Shas, is expected to follow suit, leaving Mr Netanyahu with a minority coalition of 50 seats.
The government is not expected to fall immediately, but a minority coalition will not be able to function for long without Mr Netanyahu calling early elections.
UTJ quit the coalition after Mr Netanyahu failed to present a Bill that would enshrine in law an exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva religious seminary students.
The 21-month Gaza war, the longest in Israel’s history, has caused a serious rift in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.
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Many of the voters of the right-wing parties have already served hundreds of days of army reserve duty, causing a huge strain on families and businesses.
The ultra-Orthodox parties, in contrast, serve a constituency that, with a few exceptions, does not serve in the army. Calls for a more equitable sharing of the burden have been rebuffed by ultra-Orthodox rabbis and political leaders, who fear that military service will be the first step towards the adoption of a more secular lifestyle.
The next elections must be held by October 2026. Even if Shas also leaves the government, the two ultra-Orthodox parties are reportedly uninterested in toppling the coalition at this juncture and forcing new elections, realising that any future coalition will also be unlikely to agree to authorise draft dodging.
The high court has already ruled that the ultra-Orthodox, with the exception of a small group of exceptional Torah scholars, must serve in the military like all Jewish males.
A range of sanctions are being mulled against the draft dodgers, including ending welfare payments, withholding driving licences and preventing travel abroad. But many of the ultra-Orthodox claim they would rather go to prison than enlist in the army.
The upcoming Knesset summer recess, which starts on July 27th, will give Mr Netanyahu three months to try to come up with a compromise while ruling with a minority government. Alternatively, he could try to conjure up another reason to go to elections, realising that going to the polls having failed to draft the ultra-Orthodox will not be a vote winner.
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Mr Netanyahu also faces the prospect of the total disintegration of his coalition if he clinches a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that prompts the two far-right parties to leave his government.
Such a scenario is a distinct possibility as both parties have warned that ending the war without what they term “total victory” over Hamas will force them to work to topple the government.
