Israel is concerned that US president Donald Trump‘s visit to the Middle East this week may herald the end of Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
The qualitative military edge (QME) involves a US guarantee that Israel receives more advanced weapons than Arab states.
Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in a watershed trip that will go a long way in shaping the future of the Middle East over the next decade and more. Israel was not at the table.
Traditionally, maintaining Israel’s QME has been a cornerstone of US policy towards the region. Mr Trump, it appears, has jettisoned this approach. His comments in Gulf capitals this week indicated a US readiness to reconsider the supply of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
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Military officials in Israel will not criticise Trump publicly but are reported to be extremely concerned by the latest turn of events.
Maintaining Israel’s QME meant that when Saudi Arabia purchased F-15 fighter jets in the late 1970s and when Egypt bought later acquired F-16s, they received inferior models to those supplied to Israel.
The US Congress in 2008 codified into law Washington’s long-standing commitment to maintaining Israel’s QME, requiring the president to continually assess whether that superiority was being preserved.
The policy lasted until this week when Trump unveiled an arms sales package to Saudi Arabia worth nearly $142 billion (€127 billion). A White House statement called it “the largest defence co-operation agreement” in US history. Although it didn’t specify which arms the US would sell Saudi Arabia, F-35s are on the table, the officials said.
Senior Israeli defence officials, in talks with their US counterparts, have made clear their opposition to the sale of F-35s to Riyadh.
Israel has also warned that the sale of the advanced warplanes to Riyadh could set a precedent for Turkey to acquire them. Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has lobbied US secretary of state Marco Rubio against allowing Ankara back into the F-35 programme, following calls by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Israel’s destruction.
Mr Trump also promised the F-35 to the United Arab Emirates, but the Biden administration never saw the sale through, citing concerns about the UAE’s military ties to China.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett said Israel under the leadership of Netanyahu had become passive. “The Middle East is undergoing tectonic changes before our eyes. Our enemies are getting stronger, and Netanyahu, Smotrich and their gang are paralysed, passive, as if they don’t exist,” he said.
The political right in Israel greeted Trump’s election victory with great enthusiasm, eagerly anticipating his second term in office, believing he would grant Israel a green light to shape regional developments to its liking. Now, they are not so sure.
