Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s top priority is political survival.
He must please his far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners whatever the cost: keep them happy and he remains prime minister.
This may involve transferring huge funds to the parties, permitting expansion of West Bank settlements or continuing the military draft exemption for yeshiva seminary Torah students, even during a multi-front war when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is short of thousands of soldiers.
His second priority is to please president-elect Donald Trump: keep on his good side, come what may.
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In his first stint as president, Trump pushed through a number of decisions that no other administration – Republican or Democratic – has even considered. He recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the US embassy there; he recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War; and he initiated the Abraham Accords, expanding Israel’s diplomatic relations across the Arab world.
It now appears that Netanyahu’s top two priorities are on a collision course.
For more than a year he resisted a Gaza ceasefire, despite intense pressure from president Joe Biden. Then Trump won the election and made it clear there would be “all hell to pay” if the war was not over before he assumed office.
Most commentators speculated about US pressure on Hamas but the threat was also aimed at Israel. To press home the message, Trump sent his incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to Jerusalem last weekend. Witkoff made it clear that the boss wants a deal now. In the following days Israeli negotiators in Doha compromised on a number of sticking points, paving the way for a ceasefire.
Netanyahu’s talking points went out the window. There was no more mention of “total victory” and “eliminating Hamas”. A few months ago Netanyahu devoted an entire news conference to highlighting the strategic importance to Israel of the so-called Philadelphi route that runs along the border between southern Gaza and the Egyptian Sinai. Israel must maintain a permanent presence there, he said, to thwart attempts by Hamas to rearm. Under the terms of the Gaza ceasefire, Israeli troops will leave the Philadelphi corridor, along with the rest of the coastal enclave, except for a limited buffer zone along the border fence.
Israel’s two far-right parties are not happy and are asking what happened to Netanyahu’s claim of a special relationship with Trump.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) urged Bezalel Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionist party, to join him and leave the coalition rather than accept a deal which he termed a “surrender” to Hamas. The Religious Zionist party is wavering and says it will only stay in Netanyahu’s government if it receives guarantees that the fighting in Gaza will resume after the first stage of the ceasefire.
Netanyahu offered vague commitments along the lines that Israel will always retain the option of resuming hostilities in response to Hamas violations.
But this is not enough for Smotrich, who once referred to Netanyahu as a pathological liar.
“If the deal leads to halting the war without achieving its objectives, there is no point in continuing our partnership in the government,” said Religious Zionist Knesset parliamentarian Zvi Succot. “There is nothing we could accept, neither budgets nor positions, not even a shift in the West Bank, that outweighs this issue,” he said.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, will need all his political skills to conjure up a formula that keeps both Trump and Smotrich happy.
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