Middle EastAnalysis

Turkey set to benefit from Assad’s downfall

President Erdogan eager to further his nation’s regional interests by helping to ensure the transition to a stable new political regime in Syria

A banner featuring Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian community and supporters gather to celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in Istanbul. Photograph: Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty Images
A banner featuring Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian community and supporters gather to celebrate the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in Istanbul. Photograph: Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty Images
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Michael Jansen
Wed Dec 11 2024 - 17:05

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has made him the most influential external actor in Syria following the collapse of the Assad dynasty.

Erdogan fostered al-Qaeda offshoot HTS and forged its chief ally the Syrian National Army‌ from disparate rebel factions. When these groups seized control over Syria’s northwestern Idlib province after unrest erupted in 2011, Ankara armed and protected them, making them dependent on Turkey. Over the past year, Turkey prepared them to mount the shock offensive that toppled the 54-year-old Assad regime.

The Turkish president has three major objectives. He seeks to stabilise Syria by securing a political solution in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolution 2254 of 2015. This calls for the establishment of an inclusive interim government that would conduct elections.

Paradoxically, Erdogan calls for respect for Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty while Turkey occupies 100 towns and villages in nearly 9,000sq km of northern Syria.

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As the 2.9 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey have become unpopular with the Turkish public, Erdogan urges them to go home. To facilitate their repatriation, Turkey has increased capacity to handle tens of thousands daily at five crossings and opened a sixth.

“As Syria gains stability, voluntary returns will increase and their 13-year longing for their homeland will come to an end,” Erdogan has said.

Erdogan is determined to counter and contain the US-supported Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has carved out an autonomous region in the northeast. He regards the SDF as a “terrorist” partner of Turkey’s insurgent Kurds.

Since Sunday, Turkish proxy forces backed by Turkish air strikes have seized the border towns of Tell Rifaat and Manbij from the SDF and have advanced to the city of Kobani where Syrian Kurds defeated the Islamic State terror group in 2014. On Tuesday US Central Command head Gen Michael Kurilla visited Syria to discuss force protection with the SDF and the officers of 900 US troops based in the area.

US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw the contingent when he returns to the White House. This could compel the Syrian Kurds to do a deal with HTS that could press the SDF to continue the fight against Islamic State fighters who have regrouped in eastern Syria. However, Israel’s systematic destruction of Syrian arms depots could make it difficult to defend Syria from Islamic State and other antagonists.

Ankara’s connection with HTS could advantage Turkish firms once Syria begins rebuilding war-ravaged cities, towns and villages and infrastructure. Trade in food, fuel and other supplies is likely to flourish once stability is restored. The Turkish lira has already begun to take over from the collapsed Syrian currency.