Middle EastAnalysis

Israel says it will not allow Iran to use Syria crisis to its benefit

Israeli intelligence officials warn about dangers of Assad regime collapse as fighter jets reportedly intercept Iranian plane

Anti-regime fighters at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty
Anti-regime fighters at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty
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Mark Weiss
Mon Dec 02 2024 - 16:00

Israel is keeping a close eye on developments in Syria and sees both dangers and opportunities in wake of the rebel offensive.

Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has already convened a number of security assessments and Israel has made it clear that it will not allow Iran to use the crisis to its benefit.

“We are a sovereign state, and we will ensure that Iran doesn’t smuggle weapons to Lebanon and Hizbullah via Syria,” Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari told Sky News Arabia in an interview on Monday. “The IDF will act accordingly.”

An Iranian flight suspected of transferring arms to Hizbullah in Lebanon was reportedly intercepted by Israel jets over Syria at the weekend and forced to turn back.

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Israel believes Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is allowing Iranian forces and pro-Iranian militias to enter Syria to defend his regime and says this could affect Israel’s northern front. The main concern is that Iranian forces may use the fighting as a cover to deploy units to the Israeli border.

[ Russian and Syrian jets strike rebel-held Idlib city after Aleppo seized ]

Another major concern for Israel is the possibility that strategic weapons possessed by the Assad regime, including residual chemical weapons, might fall into rebel hands.

On the positive side for Israel, the fall of northern Syria to rebel forces has damaged Iranian and Hizbullah infrastructure and makes it more difficult for Hizbullah to rearm. The fact that Hizbullah has been forced to divert significant resources and attention to help defend the Assad regime may also increase the likelihood that the ceasefire in Lebanon, signed last week, will be upheld. Israel noted that Hizbullah violations of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon have already decreased over the last few days.

In the short term, a weakening of the Iranian axis in Syria is seen in Israel as a positive development, but there is a concern that the Assad regime’s collapse could lead to the emergence of new military threats against Israel. Intelligence officials warned Israeli leaders that if the stability of regime is threatened, chaos could ensue.

“A situation where another country on Israel’s border turns unstable is a very disturbing and worrying development. We need to be prepared for all possibilities, including the collapse of the Assad regime and the risk that terror organisations pose a new threat to Israel,” an Israeli source said.

In its efforts to stop Iranian aid to Hizbullah, the IDF has reportedly launched 70 attacks on Syria since the start of the war with Hizbullah, targeting border crossings, Hizbullah and Shia militia storehouses and installations in the country.