This week’s dramatic events have put the Middle East, yet again, on the brink of a dangerous regional confrontation, shifting the focus from Gaza to Lebanon.
The mind-boggling attack, blamed on Israel, that targeted Hizbullah’s pager network on Tuesday and the group’s walkie-talkies the following day, dealt the Iranian-backed militia a devastating blow.
The New York Times reported that years ago Mossad set up a shell company in Hungary posing as an international pager producer and manufactured the devices that were shipped to Lebanon, containing batteries laced with explosives.
Ideally, Israel would have wanted to detonate the wave of explosions at the start of a war with Hizbullah, creating a decisive military advantage. However, according to international media reports, the operation was ordered this week after Hizbullah became suspicious and sent a few pagers to Iran for inspection.
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Israeli hopes that the blow to Hizbullah would lead the group to agree to stop its daily rocket attacks on the Galilee, which forced more than 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes, were dashed on Thursday when Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, vowing to avenge this week’s Israeli strikes, said the fighting on Israel’s northern border would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
Over recent weeks it has become clear that hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement are fading (both sides have blamed the other for the deadlock). A Wall Street Journal report on Thursday confirmed the most pessimistic assessments, citing high-ranking US administration officials saying they do not expect a deal to be reached between Israel and Hamas in the four months remaining in the Biden administration.
Nasrallah described this week’s events as a declaration of war but, at the same time, fell short of unleashing Hizbullah’s vast arsenal of medium- and long-range rockets at Israeli cities. Despite the bravado of his comments, in which he said he would welcome an Israeli ground invasion of south Lebanon, most analysts believe this is the last thing he wants.
Iran also is not seeking an all-out war at this juncture against its arch-enemy. For the clerics in Iran the top priority has always been the country’s nuclear project. It views Hizbullah as its trump card to deter an Israeli attack against its nuclear facilities.
Does Israel want war? That’s still not clear. On Thursday night Israeli jets launched powerful strikes against Hizbullah’s launching capabilities, hitting about 100 launchers in the south. But it remains to be seen if this was a prelude to an all-out war.
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to alter the security situation on the northern border and restore the evacuees to their homes, plans to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week, so is unlikely to approve a ground offensive during the session.
Military reinforcements have been moved to the north from the Gaza arena and the generals say they are ready. But there is no clear strategy for Israel to turn this week’s spectacular tactical successes into a strategic victory.
Israel’s escalation this week could be a dangerous gamble. The country is weary after almost a year of fighting. A new campaign in Lebanon could last even longer and result in an unprecedented level of death and destruction. Israel lacks the manpower for a prolonged war and it does not have international backing for a regional war, nor a promise of munitions and weapons from the US and other allies. The last thing the Biden administration wants a few weeks before an election is a major war in the Middle East.
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