Liberal Dutch leader Rob Jetten is tipped to become the next prime minister in the Netherlands after voters rejected a short-lived experiment with a government led by the far right.
Jetten’s D66 party performed better than expected in parliamentary elections on Wednesday, with preliminary results suggesting it was tied for first place with the far-right Freedom party, which was set to lose 11 seats compared with the 2023 election. The pivot back to the centre has lifted liberal hopes across Europe, even as far-right populists remain a disruptive force.
The result showed “it is possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements”, Mr Jetten said, adding that he was “very eager to work with other parties to start a coalition as soon as possible”.
The 38-year-old former energy minister has emulated former US president Barack Obama in a “yes we can”-style campaign focused on political stability, economic renewal and European co-operation.
RM Block
He will need the support of three or more other centrist parties to form a coalition with a parliamentary majority. That will not be an easy task, said Barbara Vis, professor of politics at the Utrecht University, given that no winning party has ever secured so few seats.
But “a large proportion of Dutch voters wants a stable government that will tackle societal issues such as housing after the chaos” of the Freedom party-led coalition, said Vis.
Anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders could still have the first shot at forming a government if his Freedom party inches ahead of D66 in final results, but he has few allies left and none able to form a majority.
Mr Jetten’s most viable option is a coalition with the liberal-conservative VVD, a member of the far-right-led government that collapsed in June, along with two centrist opposition parties: the Greens-Labour alliance and the Christian Democrats. This formula would have a comfortable majority of 86 seats in the lower house of the Dutch parliament, which has 150 seats.
VVD campaigned forcefully against Greens-Labour and its leader Frans Timmermans, favouring instead an alliance with rightwing forces including a populist upstart called JA21. The departure of Timmermans, who announced his resignation as leader of the alliance after a disappointing election result on Wednesday night, could pave the way for VVD to change its mind, but there are no guarantees those talks will succeed.
“There is a real risk of coalition gridlock between two pathways — D66’s preferred broad alliance and the VVD’s push to include the small hard-right JA21,” said Sander Tordoir, a researcher with the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Despite Mr Jetten’s ambition to swiftly agree on the next coalition government, few expect a deal before year-end. The past three negotiations were the longest in the history of the Netherlands, with each lasting more than 200 days.
“Many political parties won’t be willing to compromise as they enter a new campaign mode, which could make the political room for manoeuvre even more fragile,” said Elizabeth Kuiper of the European Policy Centre, noting that local elections are due in March.
While Mr Wilders’ Freedom party has lost significantly, it remains a strong force in the Dutch parliament, Ms Kuiper added. “He will do what [it] is he does best: divide and conquer from the sidelines. He will still have a major influence over decision-making in the years to come.”
Deniz Horzum, a consultant who worked as spokesperson for Mr Jetten, said his former boss should not be underestimated.
“Jetten has been in politics since kindergarten and understands the importance of dealmaking and building coalitions,” said Mr Horzum. He pointed to tense discussions among EU ministers at the height of an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, when “Jetten tried to find common ground between the Germans, Poles, Spanish — at one point literally grabbing a laptop and typing in the consensus himself”.
Mr Jetten’s European experience is set to help his country reclaim influence and restore its reputation as a bridge-builder in Brussels following Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s departure in 2024 after nearly 14 years in office. Mr Rutte then went on to become Nato secretary-general.
“After punching above our weight for years, we’ve been shooting ourselves in the foot during this last period,” said Mr Horzum. “But recovery can be swift as the machinery has always been there: the diplomats, the civil servants, the ideas.”
If he becomes premier, Mr Jetten has promised to focus on affordable housing and energy, improving the education system, tackling migration and moving the Netherlands towards a more pro-European and greener international policy — though all remain subject to coalition negotiations.
The Netherlands is also in the midst of trade tensions between the EU, US and China. The Dutch government had last month taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia, warning of risks to Europe’s economic security. Under US pressure, The Hague has already restricted the sale by Dutch group ASML of advanced semiconductor-manufacturing machines to China.
For Mr Tordoir, the election result “provides a narrow pathway to a government that can help strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy”.
Europe needs a “functional, outward-looking Netherlands to unblock domestic growth chokeholds, anchor Europe’s industrial and security strategy, and defend Dutch interests that ultimately rely on deeper European integration,” Mr Tordoir said.
- Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
