Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski was quick to claim the Polish presidency on Sunday night – too quick.
Minutes after a first exit poll gave him a 0.6 point lead, the 53-year-old joked with supporters that the phrase “na zyletki” – razor-thin margin – would now enter the Polish language and politics.
It has. But a razor can cut both ways and, hours later, the joke was on him.
Poland’s electoral commission announced early on Monday that he was not Poland’s next head of state after all – rather it would be his 42-year-old rival, Karol Nawrocki.
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A political newcomer backed by the opposition national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki took 50.9 per cent of the final vote against 49.1 per cent for Trzaskowski with a record turnout of 72 per cent.
It was a remarkable political achievement for Nawrocki, closing a 16-point point gap to overtake a government-backed political veteran to finish around 370,000 votes ahead.
While Poles woke up on Monday shocked or delighted by the news, depending on their political affiliation, Warsaw’s allies around Europe are wondering who they will be dealing with in future: the liberal-centrist prime minister Donald Tusk or the new populist right-wing president.
In Warsaw, no one is sure. Tusk slipped out of the party during Trzaskowski’s speech and, after a premature congratulatory tweet, remained silent until Monday evening when he announced a confidence motion in his 18-month-old coalition government.
Tusk is facing his gravest political challenge yet in Nawrocki, who presented himself to voters as an everyman to protect ordinary Polish interests, identity and security from the Tusk-led Warsaw liberal elite, the EU, Germany and immigrants
During a White House visit on May 1, Nawrocki secured the personal backing of US president Donald Trump – and promised a “Poland first” approach to domestic politics.
A conservative historian and former amateur boxer, Poland’s new president pulled in far-right voters from the first round while retaining conservative backers as well as struggling older and welfare-dependent Poles, particularly in eastern and southeastern regions.
Poland’s head of state holds veto powers over domestic policy, an ill-defined role in European affairs and is titular head of the defence forces. As president, Nawrocki has vowed to block any Nato membership for Ukraine and could blow up the Tusk reform agenda, in particular liberalisation of strict abortion rules.
The other winner of Sunday night was PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who cheered his candidate’s triumph over what he called a “Niagara of lies” during the campaign.
These included revelations about an undeclared second home and participation in football hooligan street brawls confirmed by Nawrocki, and reports he denied about links to organised crime and the red-light scene in his native Gdansk.
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“We have won because we are right,” Kaczynski said to supporters on Sunday night, “because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present and about all that’s wrong in our country today.”
Sunday’s win for PiS is likely to complicate the country’s relationship with the EU.
Until 18 months ago, EU officials clashed regularly with the PiS-led government over judicial reforms and campaigns against the LGBTQ+ community – even freezing EU funds after years of failed talks.
Largely on trust, and in expectation of judicial reforms from Tusk, Brussels unfroze those funds.
On Monday a spokesman said the European Commission was “confident that the reforms that have been started by the Polish government will be pursued and will continue”, without saying what made it so confident.
Nawrocki has vowed to retain controversial PiS-appointed constitutional court judges, dubbed illegal by Tusk.
Failure to progress judicial reform will increase pressure on commission president Ursula von der Leyen to freeze EU funds once more, reigniting tensions with Warsaw.
Polish tensions with Germany are likely to rise, given Nawrocki has joined PiS-led calls for second World War compensation from Germany – a call rejected by Berlin.
Amid muted congratulations from major capitals, the loudest cheers came from far-right and populist political leaders.
Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán congratulated Nawrocki on his “fantastic victory” on X. French National Rally leader Marine Le Pen called the win “good news” for Europe and a setback for the “Brussels oligarchy” and its “authoritarian policies and federalist ambitions”.
By midmorning, Trzaskowski offered his concession and voiced regret that Poles had failed to back his vision of “a Poland that is strong, safe, honest and empathetic”.
With the new president not due to take office until August, no one knows for sure how far the political independent will take his role as Polish head of state.
In particular, no one knows how loyal Nawrocki will remain to PiS once he is installed in the presidential palace.
“It’s quite likely he will get power-hungry, go rogue and see himself as a kingmaker in a future government alliance of PiS and the far right,” Mateusz Mazzini, a Warsaw political analyst, said.
“This wasn’t just a referendum on the government, it was the marginalised rural voters and rebellious youth voting out the urban, globalist, middle class. It’s just beginning and it’s going to get ugly.”
