On a sunny Sunday afternoon, Poland’s two presidential hopefuls marched through Warsaw with armies of supporters on parallel streets 700 metres and political light-years apart.
The two candidates are neck-and-neck in polls, ramping up still further stakes in what all agree is a landmark battle – not just for power in Poland but its path in the EU and destiny in Nato.
Warsaw police said about 150,000 people turned out to support the capital’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a 53-year-old candidate of the ruling, centrist Civic Coalition (KO).
“I want to be the president that connects people and talks to everyone,” said Trzaskowski to enthusiastic cheers of “Rafał! Rafał!”
Acknowledging groups in the crowd from across the country, he added: “All of Poland – and the whole world – are watching us. On June 1st we will make a decision which may be the most important in our lives.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher after Trzaskowski’s tight first-round win rattled liberal prime minister Donald Tusk. Defeat next Sunday could doom his political agenda by prolonging a legislative blockade from a president allied with the opposition national conservative Law and Justice (PiS).
“Poland is on the threshold of greatness today,” said Tusk, warning the crowd that only a Trzaskowski win will allow his government to “change Poland as we promised”.
Even without the PiS blockade Tusk’s complicated coalition comprising leftists, liberals and farmers has infuriated many voters by failing as yet to deliver on promised reforms of restrictive abortion laws and social spending. Analysts suggest a PiS presidential election victory on Sunday could see Tusk trigger a snap election.
His national conservative rivals in PiS are hoping for just that by retaining the presidential palace with historian Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old political novice and alleged former football hooligan.
In a nod to his colourful past, Nawrocki told an estimated 50,000 people on Sunday he had “been on a long and complicated journey”.
“I want to fight for you, I’m like you, I am the voice of all of us, the normal citizens of Poland,” he said, framing himself as the last hope against Tusk’s efforts “to control everything” in cahoots with an EU that wants to “destroy Poland”.
His campaign has surfed a wave of scandal, from an undeclared second home to claims of illegal surveillance as a national museum director. Marching on Sunday, 30 year-old Filip from Poznan admitted Nawrocki is “not an ideal candidate, but at least he’ll prevent total Tusk control”.
“We’re afraid of a further neoliberal push and want politics for the people, not just the capital,” he added.
Warsaw woman Irene (71) agreed, saying Warsaw’s mayor “represents the elites, a closed system, and we want political pluralism”.
Poland’s president is more than a ceremonial head of state, with far-reaching veto powers on legislation and ultimate control of the armed forces. With that in mind, Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine looms large as the two candidates rush to secure voters of defeated first-round candidates.
While both candidates have talked tough on migration and welfare for Ukrainians, only Nawrocki has signed a pledge presented by a far-right candidate promising to neither back laws allowing Ukraine into Nato nor send Polish soldiers to Ukraine.
Trzaskowski has refused to sign that pledge, but a viral image of him sharing a beer with the far-right politician behind the pledge could yet influence the final result.
At his Sunday rally, Trzaskowski warned the crowd to mobilise relatives and friends for a vote that “is not a casting call”.
Among the crowd were supporters of eliminated candidates attending more out of duty than enthusiasm for the KO candidate who, for many, typifies the confident Warsaw middle-class loved and loathed equally across Poland.
Trzaskowski is a polyglot political scientist who studied in Oxford and Paris and worked as a translator and political adviser before entering politics as an MEP in 2009 and then as a national parliamentarian a decade ago. After two junior cabinet posts he was elected to the powerful and prominent position of Warsaw mayor in 2018.
“Trzaskowski isn’t the worst and at least he isn’t a bandit like Nawrocki,” said Tom, a 21-year-old visiting from Gdansk, the PiS candidate’s hometown. “God forbid he wins because he’ll be a Trump-type destroyer, a pro-Russian candidate who will work to block Nato.”
Thinking along similar lines is 70-year-old Hanna, holding a sign reading: “To the right is Russia”.
“There is no place for uncultured hooligans like Nawrocki,” she said.
Looking on solemnly from the sidelines of the Sunday rally was Adam Bodnar, Poland’s minister for justice. More than most, he needs a Trzaskowski win to progress his push to reverse the PiS-era takeover of the judicial system. That created illegal judges and court bodies and brought Warsaw into conflict with its neighbours in Brussels.
“At stake is the future of Poland,” he said, “and the continuation of the rule of law recovery, counteracting the abuses that happened and accountability for past abuses.”
Would he be able to work with a president Nawrocki?
“The decision to work is in the hands of the prime minister and it is the prime minister making the decisions here.”
