Portugal‘s conservative prime minister Luís Montenegro strengthened his position in Sunday’s general election, although the composition and stability of the next government remain uncertain after the far-right Chega broke the hegemony of the established parties.
Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) centre-right coalition had 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, with overseas votes yet to be counted, nine more than in the 2024 election when he took power. The result, which meant parties on the left suffered heavy losses, appears to mean the acting prime minister can leave behind a conflict-of-interest scandal which had triggered the election after Montenegro’s government collapsed in March.
“People want this government and they don’t want any other,” Montenegro said. “People want this prime minister and not any other.”
The opposition had denounced Montenegro’s ties to a company, Spinumviva, which has benefited from contracts awarded by the government, making the election in part a referendum on the prime minister’s handling of the affair.
“Who will keep talking about Spinumviva after this result?” asked political columnist Pedro Tadeu of Diário de Notícias newspaper. “Nobody”.
However, Montenegro’s AD remains a minority force in parliament and vulnerable to the instability which has hit the country’s politics in recent years.
The shock of the election was provided by Chega, which, with votes still to be counted, was tied with the Socialist Party on 58 seats. Chega, which was only formed in 2019, had already become the third force in parliament and this result raises the prospect of it either being the main party of opposition or even of entering government.
Chega leader André Ventura hogged the media spotlight for much of the campaign, during which he engaged in public arguments with members of the Romani community and advocated a severe clampdown on immigration. He was hospitalised towards the end of the campaign, due to a gastric complaint, ensuring he was talked about until election day.
“Nothing will be the same in Portugal from today,” Ventura said, as he acknowledged the result, which he dedicated to “those who have felt humiliated during these 50 years of the [democratic] regime”.
While immigration, which has increased substantially in recent years, was a significant theme of the campaign, so too was housing, the cost of which has risen sharply in Portugal as wages have failed to keep up.
The Socialist Party was the big loser of the ballot, shedding 20 seats. Along with the conservatives, it had been a dominant force since the transition from dictatorship to democracy in 1974. As recently as 2022, it won an absolute majority under then-prime minister António Costa. However, his successor as party leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, stepped down on Sunday after the scale of the defeat became apparent. He cited “tough and difficult times for the left and for the Socialist Party”, for which this was the worst result since 1987.
The Socialists governed between 2015 and 2023, with the support of other parties on the left, including the Communist Party and Leftist bloc. Both of those lost ground, although the relatively new left-wing Livre party gained seats.
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will start meeting party leaders on Tuesday before inviting one of them to form a government.
All eyes are now on whether Montenegro attempts to govern alone or alongside another party. The centre-right Liberal Initiative (ID) was seen as a potential partner for the AD, but its nine seats would still leave Montenegro far off the 116 needed to form a majority. In the past, he has ruled out the possibility of governing with Chega and his acting foreign minister, Paulo Rangel, has reiterated that stance in the wake of the election.
