European states look set to come under greater pressure to free up money to spend on defence as US president Donald Trump’s push for a settlement to end the war in Ukraine gathers pace.
A small group of European leaders met for an emergency summit in Paris on Monday to discuss how to make sure Europe plays a role in future negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US to end the Continent’s biggest war since 1945. The summit came as Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov prepared to meet US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia for talks about ending the war. Ukraine was not invited to the initial talks in Riyadh on Tuesday, heightening concern in Kyiv and other EU capitals about how the White House will run the planned negotiations.
Contacts between US and Russian officials are beginning to intensify, laying the groundwork for a possible meeting between Mr Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
EU diplomats privately expressed concern that Mr Trump may put pressure Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept an unfavourable deal that undermines the future security of Ukraine, and possibly Europe.
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Ukraine has insisted any settlement would need to include assurances the US could help guarantee the country’s security from a future Russian attack. Mr Zelenskiy reiterated his country would not accept anything that was agreed “about us, without us”.
The summit in Paris brought together the leaders of France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands, who discussed ways to guarantee Ukraine’s security in any settlement.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer said his country would be willing to contribute troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. However, Mr Starmer said any guarantees Europe gave to Ukraine would need to be backed by the US. This would be the “only way” to deter Russia from mounting another attack, he said.
Speaking after the meeting German chancellor Olaf Scholz said the terms of any peace could not be dictated to Ukraine, a sentiment echoed by other European leaders. The German leader said discussions about the composition of peacekeeping forces were premature.
EU states will have to significantly increase the amount they spend on their defence and militaries, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said. The transatlantic relationship between Europe and the US was entering a “new stage” under Mr Trump, he said after the meeting.
[ Ukraine deal would need security guarantees, says TuskOpens in new window ]
The push to find more funding for defence will reignite debate over whether EU states should agree to take on common debt, as the bloc did to finance a multibillion euro recovery scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic.
One change being considered by European Commission officials is to exclude defence spending from EU rules introduced to keep national budgets in check. Mr Scholz said Germany would be open to EU member states who invest heavily in defence getting more leeway on the budget deficit limits.
Speaking in Brussels, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said the EU would have to be balanced in how it went about hiking up defence spending. “I am certain that we will find ways to respond back to the security needs that Europe has, while at the same time looking after our basic economic stability. Both can be done together.”
Moscow meanwhile ruled out making concessions to Kyiv and mocked the idea of European states joining its talks with the US. Mr Lavrov made clear that the Kremlin was sticking to its demand that Ukraine give up five regions that are now partly or fully occupied by Moscow’s troops.
[ Analysis: Ukraine deal existential for EUOpens in new window ]
