Where conservative grandee Michel Barnier failed, French president Emmanuel Macron has turned to veteran centrist Francois Bayrou to try to restore political order in France.
For three months Barnier, the former commissioner known in more recent years as the EU’s chief negotiator during the Brexit talks, tried to govern as a prime minister without a majority in parliament. His administration fell trying to pass a belt-tightening budget that attempted to chop back France’s sprawling spending deficit.
When he could not get the numbers in the incredibly divided National Assembly, Barnier relied on special constitutional powers to try to force through the controversial budget. In response both the left and the far-right backed a no-confidence motion, collapsing his fragile minority government that few had expected would last long.
The source of the current crisis is Macron’s gamble holding to hold snap parliamentary elections last in June. The French president hoped with left-wing parties divided, he could pitch his centrist alliance as the only alternative to the far right and win a shock majority.
The move backfired quickly when the left came together under one banner, the New Popular Front (NPF). The broad electoral pact included France Unbowed, the radical left-wing party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the centre-left Socialist Party of former president Francois Hollande, as well as the Greens and communists.
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The left-wing bloc won the most seats, but were was far short of the 289 needed for a majority. Macron’s camp lost a huge number of seats and finished second, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally coming out as the third largest force.
After putting politics to the side during the summer Olympic Games, Macron turned to Barnier to form a government.
With Barnier coming from the small conservative party, the Republicans, the move was decried as a subversion of the election results by the left. They had hoped the figure they put forward — Lucie Castets, a senior civil servant in the Paris city administration — would be chosen.
The numbers in parliament meant Le Pen was holding one end of the rug that Barnier’s government stood on. She was always likely to pull it from under him at some point.
The minority government had the support of the president’s centrist alliance, but with the left united in its opposition, Barnier needed the National Rally to abstain in any vote of no confidence. To win their favour he appointed a migration hardliner as interior minister and made several concessions to Le Pen on the budget, which ultimately were not enough.
Green Party senator Mélanie Vogel said the fact Barnier had to rely on the tacit support of the far right meant his tenure was bound to be short. His government was never going to be right-wing enough to satisfy the National Rally and at the same time too right to win support from the left, she said.
One of the main legacies of the short-lived administration may have been to further normalise the far right by collaborating with them, the senator said. “That’s a game that you cannot play.”she said.
Macron took a back seat during the domestic wrangling over the budget, refusing to get involved in a crisis his critics say he alone created.
One former adviser to the president said he is “not somebody that easily recognises his mistakes”. The power vacuum created by his snap parliamentary elections had “irredeemably” weakened Macron, as well as France, according to the former official.
Manon Aubry, an MEP from the left-wing France Unbowed, described the president as “a kid who plays with a toy, breaks it and says he wants another one”. France was stuck in a stalemate and the new government will not get much further than the last, Aubry said.
Amid this chaos at the top of French politics, Le Pen sees a chance to finally pick her way to the presidency, in what would be a historic breakthrough for the far right in Europe.
For more than a decade Le Pen has led the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration National Rally, after taking over from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. She has sought to make it a more acceptable choice for voters, focusing not just on immigration but also bread and butter topics such as the high cost of living. In doing so she has edged closer and closer to power.
Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos polling company, said the far-right leader had been trying to cultivate her image as a credible, competent politician, without going too far and alienating her more “radical” base. Traditional centre-right voters still didn’t see the National Rally as “ready” at the last election, Gallard said. The decision to help oust Barnier’s government would not help Le Pen’s support among those hesitant about trusting her party, he said.
Victory in the 2027 presidential elections, where Macron cannot stand for a third term, would be the culmination of all Le Pen’s efforts.
However, the French courts could scupper all of that. A verdict is due in March in a long-running court case over the alleged misuse of European Parliament funding, charges the far-right leader has rejected. If found guilty Le Pen could be barred from public office for several years, possibly ruling her out of the presidential race.
A former director of the Jacques Delors Institute think tank, Sébastien Maillard, said Le Pen took a “risky bet” in bringing down the last government, possibly trying to force an early presidential election.
In the back of her mind is the fear that after years of waiting, her moment may slip away. Jordan Bardella, her 29-year-old deputy and the rising star of the National Rally, is being spoken about as someone who could eclipse her by 2027. “The more she waits, the more chance others will take her place,” Maillard said.
Now France has its fourth prime minister in a year, with Bayrou, a long-established figure and centrist ally of Macron, chosen to break the political deadlock. Bayrou (73), who founded the Modem party, ran for president several times, but in 2017 threw his weight behind Macron’s successful first bid for the Elysee Palace.
Macron does not have the power to dissolve the assembly and hold fresh elections again until the summer, meaning Bayrou will face the same difficulties as his predecessor.
The new prime minister would be better positioned than Barnier to negotiate with the centre left, and was not hated by the far right, Gallard says. Still, building anything close to a majority in parliament will be difficult. “It’s going to be terribly complicated.”he adds.
Bayrou is likely to try to win the support of the more moderate Socialist Party and perhaps some Green deputies, cleaving them from the left bloc, while also hoping to keep the centre-right Republicans on board. Finding a way to get a budget passed by parliament will be his immediate priority.
Stepping into the Matignon as prime minister after a lifetime in French politics, Bayrou will know well that the length of his stay will depend on what those to his right and left decide to do next.
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