A breakthrough in Alzheimer’s research by scientists in the Netherlands will allow doctors to tell early-stage patients for the first time how quickly their brain function will decline and in what ways.
The researchers in Amsterdam have developed a predictive model based on data from about 1,000 previously diagnosed sufferers, including general information such as age, gender and cognitive test scores but also brain scan results and biomarkers gathered from cerebrospinal fluid.
Using this complex data, the predictive model can anticipate the progression of the neurodegenerative disease for new patients, says the research published on Friday in the peer-reviewed journal, Neurology.
“When a diagnosis of dementia or cognitive impairment is made, one thing is certain, which is that the patient’s condition will deteriorate”, said Prof Wiesje van der Flier, director of Alzheimer's Research at Amsterdam’s university medical centre.
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“How quickly that happens, and how that deterioration shows itself, varies hugely from person to person. It’s the first thing everyone wants to know: What can I expect now? But the best doctors have been able to do over the years is to try to explain the nature of the disease.”
According to the Dutch research, the new model is most effective in anticipating the progression of the disease over an initial five years.
“Previous research showed patients wanted as much useful and practical information as we could give them, and so this model clearly meets that important and very human need,” said lead researcher, Pieter van der Veere.
“However, it also goes much further. It is tailored to each individual’s personal profile. It will never be 100 per cent accurate, but in that process we aim to remove as much of the uncertainly for individual dementia sufferers as possible.”
The scientists have already developed a prototype of an app, which has so far been used only in their research.
The next step is to develop a more user-friendly version of that app that will allow input from patients, from healthcare professionals across disciplines, and from family members who are often confused about how best to help.
That, said Mr Van der Veere, would “represent an important step towards personalised forecasts” for patients. The more the app learns, the more useful it becomes.
The aim is not just to give patients “a glimpse into the future”, but to radically change the conversation between patients, their doctors, their carers and their families.
“This model can be an invaluable support to all of them. A doctor, for instance, can forecast what the possible benefits may be if a patient with mild dementia makes changes such as adopting a healthier lifestyle or starting to use a particular medication.”
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