The Netherlands has raised its terror threat alert level to “substantial” for the first time in more than four years, citing the war in Gaza as a major contributory factor.
The national counterterrorism co-ordinator warned that global jihadist networks such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State were using the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas as a “call to action” to carry out attacks in the West.
“Substantial” is the second-highest level in the Dutch scale after “critical”, which means the security services have specific and credible intelligence that an attack is imminent.
“Attacks and arrests in France, Germany, Belgium and the UK since early October illustrate the risks posed by radicalised individuals who are inspired by current events and by terrorist propaganda”, said Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg, who described an attack in the Netherlands as “a realistic possibility”.
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Earlier this month, a German tourist was killed and several others wounded in an attack near the Eiffel Tower in Paris by a 26-year-old man known to have been a radicalised Muslim. He had been jailed in 2016 for four years for terrorism offences.
Following that attack, the Netherlands issued a code yellow warning for travel to Paris, meaning visitors may still travel but should be aware of the possibility of attacks.
Mr Aalbersberg said that as well as the Gaza war, other factors contributing to the increase in the alert level included incidents in a number of countries, including the Netherlands, in which the Koran had been publicly torn up by groups such as the far-right Pegida.
“In this heightened context, lone attackers are often more unpredictable and therefore more difficult to recognise and stop than groups”, he said.
He also underlined a warning from the Dutch supreme court earlier this month about “anti-institutional extremism”, a growing number of people living as “self-declared sovereign individuals” outside of mainstream society.
“Many such people pose no violent threat,” he acknowledged. “However, a minority have been debating when violence is justified, and a smaller minority still are making preparations for a violent confrontation with the government.”
In the background, talks on a new coalition government are continuing following a surprise move to the right in a general election last month which saw Geert Wilders’s anti-Islam Freedom Party become the largest in the country, with 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament.
Mr Wilders – who lives under police protection for fear of Islamist attack – says he aims to become the country’s first far-right prime minister.
The counter-terrorism co-ordinator did not refer to the swing to the right in his assessment of the threat level.
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