Germans dislike nuclear power so much they abolished it — twice. But as Russia’s war on Ukraine upends old certainties — peace in Europe, moderate inflation, affordable energy — rumours of nuclear power’s demise in Germany may yet prove exaggerated.
The issue has split Berlin’s federal government, in particular chancellor Olaf Scholz’s two junior partners. While Green economics and energy minister Robert Habeck insisted on Monday that “nuclear power is of no help to us now”, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) disagrees.
The FDP says this week’s scheduled maintenance shut down of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline has underlined the fragility of Germany’s energy security, “making it the right thing to extend the life of the nuclear power plants”.
Christian Dürr, FDP Bundestag floor leader, added: “I don’t want to cry wolf but after the [Nord Stream] maintenance works, it could be that no more gas will flow ... because Putin will find some technical excuse to ensure to turn off the gas tap permanently.”
Germany’s centre-right opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), spotting an opportunity to stir the pot, has backed the nuclear power extension. “We shouldn’t rob ourselves of this chance ... to save on gas to generate electricity,” wrote CDU leader Friedrich Merz in Tuesday’s Bild tabloid. “Dear Greens, bite the bullet, no taboos. Do it for Germany!”
Germany’s pivot towards renewable energy, while simultaneously shutting down nuclear, was always a gamble — in particular for the heavy industry on which Europe’s largest economy rests.
Ex-CDU chancellor Angela Merkel’s move depended on cheap Russian gas imports as an “energy bridge”, but February’s invasion of Ukraine has caused that bridge to sag and collapse.
Germany’s nuclear power phase-out began 20 years ago under the first Green coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Their plan to shutter all nuclear plants by 2022, the culmination of decades of grassroots anti-nuclear protest, was overturned in September 2010 by the second Merkel administration.
Its new timetable extended the life of nuclear plants by between seven and 14 years. Six months later, the Fukushima nuclear disaster saw Merkel tear up her plan and revive the original SPD-Green timetable to end nuclear energy by 2022.
Furious at her political flip-flopping, Germany’s energy giants sued and secured €2.4 billion in compensation. But they stuck to the 2022 deadline and have been quietly mothballing nuclear plants ever since.
Germany’s three remaining plants will, in accordance with the nuclear energy exit bill, go off the energy grid on or before December 31st. Or will they?
The operators say that, by using current energy rods until exhaustion, the three plants could continue producing around 4.3 gigawatts of energy well into the spring. That power — around six per cent of Germany’s total energy mix — could help fill a crucial gap in the coming winter.
“Doing without nuclear power for energy in this acute situation is impossible to explain to people,” said Prof Lars Feld, economic adviser to FDP finance minister Christian Lindner.
But Germany’s federal energy and environment ministries — both in Green Party hands — insist that nothing will change.
Fearing a nuclear renaissance via the back door, the economics ministry pointed out that the plants are in the final technical stages of being shut down. Reversing that is difficult and all require new uranium fuel rods. Sanctions on Russia, a main supplier of uranium to date, make this impossible.
Finally, according to a joint ministry report, energy companies have redeployed trained nuclear plant staff “and they would have to be brought back together”.
Germany’s nuclear plant operators have hit back on all points, saying they can reactivate staff and buy fuel rods with uranium from Canada or Australia.
A spokesman for energy company RWE said: “Continued operation beyond December 31st would entail high hurdles of a technical and legal nature.”
Some 61 per cent of Germans back extra time for nuclear energy, according to an ARD public television poll, but Scholz insists nothing will change — despite Germany’s looming energy crisis.
The chancellor is mindful of how his junior Green partners are still smarting from having to reactivate dirty coal power plants. Faced with tattered short-term climate goals, the Greens insist that Germany’s nuclear power down is permanent.
