Justin Trudeau, who promised “sunny ways” as he won an election in Canada on a wave of public fatigue with an incumbent Conservative government, is now facing his darkest and most uncertain political moment as he attempts to defy the odds – and a bitter public – to win a rare fourth term.
The Canadian prime minister and Liberal Party leader appears to have ignored both the demands of a handful of his own MPs calling for him to resign and threats from a separatist party looking to unravel the Liberals’ tenuous hold on power.
Nearly two dozen backbench Liberal MPs signed a letter last week calling for the prime minister to step down amid fears within the party that his unpopularity could lead to a crushing electoral defeat in the coming months. The letter was separate from a “code red” petition to grassroots party supporters calling for a secret ballot vote on Mr Trudeau’s leadership.
Mr Trudeau, in his ninth year as prime minister, appeared unmoved, telling reporters last week he had the support of the vast majority of the 153 Liberal Party members of the House of Commons and that any “robust conversations” about a path forward “will happen as me as leader going into the next election”.
The priceless Lebanon heritage sites destroyed by Israeli bombing
From liberal icon to Maga joke: the waning fortunes of Justin Trudeau
‘I’ll never forget the trail of bodies’: Magdeburg witnesses recount Christmas market attack
‘We need Macron to act.’ The view in Mayotte, the French island territory steamrolled by cyclone Chido
But analysts say the revolt in the party, which has deepened in recent months, will have left a mark on the prime minister, who was forced to stare down the most pointed criticism of his leadership to date from his own colleagues.
[ Justin Trudeau retreats from Canada’s liberal immigration regimeOpens in new window ]
“The prime minister and his operation are likely shaken and must know that for every member calling on Trudeau to leave, there are two or three others who lack the courage to say it,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister, Paul Martin.
“This is an iceberg revolt. What lurks beneath the waves could be vast, and that has got to be intimidating the prime minister, whether he admits it in public – or even in private.”
For those within the party seeking to topple Mr Trudeau, however, there is little historical precedent in the country to give comfort.
Canada has “exactly zero tradition” of prime ministers leaving their job voluntarily, said Mr Reid, with virtually all either suffering electoral defeat or “jumping at the very last moment when they’ve exhausted every possibility” of winning.
There is also no clear replacement for the prime minister.
Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted he might be interested in running for leadership of the party. Foreign minister Mélanie Joly has invaluable credentials in the province of Quebec – a must-win region for the Liberals – and public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a savvy politician with sharp instincts.
But none of them has publicly expressed an interest in the top job.
Even a wide-open leadership race would face the hurdle of selling the public an image of vigour and enthusiasm from a Liberal Party nearing a decade in power.
Virtually any contender, however, would appear to be in a better position than Mr Trudeau.
“Polling shows that a sizeable portion of the public animus toward the government has become deeply, inextricably – and quite possibly very unfairly – rooted in the prime minister himself,” said Mr Reid.
“He is a lightning rod for discontent across the country. Coupled with an almost defiant refusal on his part to signal or pursue any kind of change to the status quo, you can understand why caucus members are nervous.”
The CBC poll tracker shows the Liberals trailing nearly 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives, a showing so poor it has little historical precedent for the party.
“In the past, even unpopular governments aren’t polling this poorly,” said political analyst Éric Grenier at the Writ. “The trouble for the Liberals is, that has been a long-standing trend; it’s not the result of one scandal or big issue, but rather the drip, drip, drip of being in power for nearly 10 years.
“And the reality is that people already know what they think of Justin Trudeau, and they’re not going to change their minds about him.” – Guardian