Asia-PacificAnalysis

India elections: Final round of polling ends weeks of campaigning as temperatures soar

Early optimism of Narendra Modi’s ruling party dampened by low voter turnout

Voters after casting their ballots at a polling station in Amritsar. Counting in India's general elections begins on June 4th. Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images
Voters after casting their ballots at a polling station in Amritsar. Counting in India's general elections begins on June 4th. Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images
Rahul Bedi's picture
Rahul Bedi in New Delhi
Fri May 31 2024 - 21:00

The seventh and final round of polling in India’s multi-phased general elections takes place on Saturday, three days before vote counting begins on June 4th.

Saturday’s polling, to fill the final 57 of the 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament, ends nearly seven weeks of campaigning that concluded in searing heat as temperatures in northern India reached 52 degrees.

Political pundits were circumspect about the outcome of the elections which, before voting began on April 19th, they had indicated was a shoe-in for prime minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is seeking a record third consecutive five-year term in office.

They pointed to the prime minister’s personal popularity, largely supportive media and an opposition regarded as being in disarray.

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The government’s popularity was reported to have been bolstered by multiple welfare schemes such as the provision of free grain to nearly 813 million households for five years, the disbursement of a monthly stipend of 1,250 rupees (€14) to indigent women and building homes for more than 30 million poor families.

But election experts said the BJP’s optimism faded following low voter turnout in the first six rounds of polling, after the record highs of the 2019 general election, which Modi comfortably won. This was accompanied by a pushback from voters who began questioning the BJP’s agenda of foisting Hindu hegemony upon the country.

Many turned to social media platforms to raise issues such as endemic unemployment, at present close to 50 per cent amongst 20-24 year olds, the high cost of living and galloping inflation, which opponents claimed the prime minister had done little to resolve . Spiralling wealth disparity, which a recent analysis revealed was even more disproportionate than under colonial rule, and allegations of BJP-sponsored “crony capitalism”, also featured in these critiques.

This has triggered unease amongst the BJP’s leadership and fostered concern over its ability to secure even a simple majority of 272 parliamentary seats. At present the BJP has 303 MPs but Modi has targeted an eventual tally of 370.

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Analysts said concerns about its support levels had prompted Modi to galvanise Hindu support by turning its focus on the country’s Muslims, who comprise about 15 per cent of India’s population.

In many of his 150-odd election rallies and road shows since mid-April, Modi referred to Muslims as “infiltrators” or armed militants who produced many more children than Hindus, with the sole objective of numerically overwhelming them, in a playbook that has long been applied by the BJP, but without any factual basis.

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Modi also stoked fears amongst Hindu voters by cautioning them against electing opposition leaders who, he said, would appropriate large portions of their assets and distribute them to Muslims.

The prime minister even went to the extent of declaring at one rally that once in power the opposition would steal the taps on water connections provided to Hindu households by the BJP and hand them to Muslims.

Complaints against Modi’s outbursts by the opposition and social activists to the Election Commission of India, which is tasked with conducting the polls, have largely been disregarded or dismissed.

Meanwhile, in recent television interviews Modi claimed not to have been “biologically born” but created by God and sent to India as his instrument to govern it.

He reasserted his divine status to the NDTV news channel on May 25th by stating that God had sent him for a specific purpose, and when that covenant was concluded, he would consider his work completed.

“God doesn’t reveal his cards,” Modi said, “but he just keeps making me do things.”