South Africa’s political parties face coalition talks after this week’s general election appeared to hand the African National Congress its worst result in 30 years.
With 75.03 per cent of the 23,293 voting districts counted by Friday evening, the ANC was on course to win 41.52 per cent of the ballot, putting it on course to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994.
Although the ANC remains the most popular party the result is a big setback for President Cyril Ramaphosa (71) and his allies in the former liberation movement. The ANC must now form an alliance with at least one party to govern for the next five years.
Election modelling conducted by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research says the parties’ current standing is unlikely to change when final results are arrived at this weekend.
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The result is a sharp decline from the 57.5 per cent of the ballot the ANC won in the 2019 general election, and it indicates its anti-apartheid credentials are no longer enough to retain most voters’ loyalty.
Many South Africans are disappointed with Mr Ramaphosa’s first term as president as ANC corruption, violent crime, high unemployment and the mismanagement of state resources have remained constant under his watch.
The Democratic Alliance appears to have retained its position as the main opposition. It was running in second place on 22.26 per cent of the national vote on Friday, a slight increase on the 20.77 per cent it won in 2019.
But the biggest surprise is how well the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has done at the ANC’s expense, despite being embroiled in leadership and legal battles since its launch in December.
Fronted by former president Jacob Zuma (82), who walked away from the ANC after falling out with his colleagues there, the MK party has polled exceptionally well in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, and secured 12.81 per cent of the national vote.
This puts the party, which pledges to dilute South Africa’s constitution in favour of “unfettered parliamentary supremacy”, in third place, ahead of the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters on 9.4 per cent.
With results unlikely to change dramatically, South Africans’ attention has turned to which parties the ANC could realistically partner with to form a stable national government.
ANC deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane said the party would “put the country first” in any coalition decisions, but she insisted no one would resign because of the result.
On Thursday evening Mr Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, ruled out the MK party partnering with the ANC, saying her father had indicated he was open to working only with “progressive black parties”.
Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen told reporters in Johannesburg he was happy with the party’s trajectory, and if the trend continued in the vote-counting process they were on the cusp of a good result. “Let me tell you, a party that gets 22-24 per cent becomes a major player in determining a country’s future in an era where no one has a majority,” he said.
While he would not rule out a coalition with the ANC, Mr Steenhuisen said his first port of call would be to talk with his partners in the Multi-Party Charter, a coalition of 10 opposition parties established in July 2023 to contest the general election.
Institute for Security Studies political analyst Gareth Newham said the Democratic Alliance stood out as a viable option for the ANC, as it was a centrist party that offered a stable governance path forward for the country. “A coalition with the MK party or the EFF would not appeal to Ramaphosa because they are too radical. And I don’t think anyone in the ANC wants to reward Zuma for bringing their party down”.
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2024
