The leaders of the 27 European Union countries will sit down around the same table on Thursday morning, at a time when the union is pulling itself in several different directions. On some of the big questions facing Europe such as asylum policy, the escalating war in the Middle East and the bloc’s flagging economic future, member states can’t agree on what they want.
For a club that requires unanimity for decisions in areas such as foreign policy or tax, one of the few things everyone seems to be able to agree on is how hard it is to find agreement.
Regarding the Middle East, where Israel’s war in Gaza has extended into Lebanon, there are two camps of member states with strong positions. Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Belgium are seen as supportive of the Palestinian cause and pushing for Israel to be held accountable for the destruction of Gaza. On the other side Hungary, Germany, Austria and Czechia are usually Israel’s biggest defenders. The rest sit somewhere in the middle.
One of the main points of disagreement between member states is how to define Israel’s right to defend itself
The European Council summit of leaders this week — which sets big-picture policy directions — will repeat calls for ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza. There will also be language condemning Israeli attacks on United Nations peacekeeping troops in south Lebanon, according to an early draft statement seen by The Irish Times.
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One of the main points of disagreement between member states is how to define Israel’s right to defend itself. “The war against Hizbullah, some consider it is legitimate to go and get terrorists out, others are saying no, it’s disproportionate,” said one senior EU official this week. The pro-Israel flank blames the conflict in Lebanon squarely on rockets fired by Hizbullah militants into Israel, following the October 7th Hamas attack.
Ireland and Spain have been pushing for the EU to go further than statements of concern. They have sought a review of the EU’s trading agreement with Israel, to use leverage to restrain its military actions.
Legal advice received by Josep Borrell, the Spanish politician due to shortly finish up as the EU’s top representative on foreign affairs, outlines the decision to review the trade agreement might not solely be one for the European Commission, as initially thought. Instead, he suggested member states could take a decision. That would likely require unanimity, meaning the practically certain opposition of at least one capital would kill the proposal.
Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, who is the most Kremlin-friendly of EU leaders, is awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election in early November
The war in Ukraine, which will be the first item on the agenda, has already shown how just one of the 27 can hold up EU decisions indefinitely. Hungary’s right-wing prime minister Viktor Orban has used veto powers to block €6 billion of aid from getting to Ukraine to help it hold off Russia.
Orban, who is the most Kremlin-friendly of EU leaders, is awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election in early November. His hope is a second Trump presidency might force the EU to shift closer to his position or see the US pull its military support for Ukraine and force Kyiv to limp to the negotiating table with Russia.
The most contentious topic national leaders are due to discuss at the European Union summit will be migration and asylum policy, an area where many capitals are breaking ranks and going it alone.
Germany recently imposed checks on its borders to try to stop the flow of irregular migration from other EU countries. Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk said his government plans to temporarily bar people crossing its border with Belarus from claiming asylum, over fears migrants are being pushed into Poland and other Baltic states by Russia and its ally to destabilise the European Union.
A big overhaul of EU asylum policy passed earlier this year was supposed to draw a line under the issue after years of talking. The reforms will make it easier for countries to fast-track decisions on asylum applications and jointly shoulder the burden put on frontline states like Italy, Spain and Greece.
The latest working draft of the European Council conclusions proposes leaders call for the EU to find ‘new ways to prevent and counter irregular migration’ and speed up deportations
Governments across the union are under pressure from far-right parties on migration and the new asylum pact is not due to come into force until mid-2026. So recent months have been marked by a growing number of countries looking to shift further rightward. During the summit that camp of countries is expected to argue for parts of the asylum reforms to kick in earlier. They are also pushing for more to be done to deport asylum seekers whose claims are rejected.
The latest working draft of the European Council conclusions proposes leaders call for the EU to find “new ways to prevent and counter irregular migration” and speed up deportations.
The draft statement proposes more deals be struck with countries outside the bloc’s borders, such as those in North Africa, to stem the numbers making the journey to Europe. However, the language on migration in the draft communique is in brackets — which means there is no agreement between member states.