When José Mourinho observed a couple of seasons ago that the 1-1 draw his side had taken back home from Galatasaray in the first knockout round was "very dangerous", the boys at the Daily Telegraph got to work and discovered his was right, with only 53 per cent of away sides securing that advantage having actually progressed in European club competition over the previous five years compared to 64 per cent where the first game had simply finished scoreless.
Though the sample is tiny, the figures are rather more encouraging for international playoffs in Europe down the years, with four out of five national teams having pushed on to compete at the following summer’s championship after securing the result that Martin O’Neill’s side did on Friday night in Zenica.
It might be worth mentioning, however, that precisely half of those success stories were at the expense of the Republic of Ireland.
O’Neill, as it happens, is no stranger to the Bosnian perspective on this particular situation for his Celtic team that reached the Uefa Cup final 12 years ago having drew 1-1 at home with Liverpool then Boavista in the first legs of the quarter and semi-finals, respectively.
The Premier League outfit tried to beat them in the return match, the Portuguese to defend their lead but in each case Celtic won. It is, in short, a tricky one to call.
Adamant
The 63-year-old was adamant yesterday that digging in would be a “recipe for disaster” this time out and, while it has worked rather well for his side against Germany and almost yielded another win the other night, he just might have a point.
“It’s very finely balanced,” he said after his squad had trained back at Abbotstown yesterday.
“I think the Bosnians are capable of scoring; I think any side is capable of scoring and if you just set out to avoid that it might not work out for you.”
Certainly, it is a stretch to imagine that Ireland could ride their luck the way they did against both the Germans and Bosnians while mounting backs-to-the-wall operations last month and over the weekend.
That’s not to say that there weren’t some heroic performances or that the results ultimately achieved weren’t deserved, because opponents have to take their chances to win and, Edin Dzeko’s late equaliser aside, neither did in those games.
Still, for all the resilience shown by Ireland, enough clear-cut chances were conceded over the 180 minutes to have yielded comfortably more than one goal and, against a team whose big stars might be expected to show a little more urgency this evening than they did on Friday, it is hard to imagine there won’t be one or two this time out.
Improved options
O'Neill does at least look to have somewhat improved options as he looks to secure qualification and the accompanying millions in prize money for his employers, with Jon Walters returning from suspension while John O'Shea and Shane Long come into contention after getting through training yesterday.
Walters will start, there seems nothing surer, even from a manager who likes to spring a surprise or two, but the others are somewhat less certain to return.
Of the pair, O'Shea looks the better bet to start, although the combined performance, in his absence, of Ciaran Clark and Richard Keogh would appear to have taken much of the urgency out of the situation.
Whether Stephen Ward retains his place at left back is at least as big a call and, while the manager denied that Ireland's left back was targeted on Friday, the pattern of play – with everything for the Bosnians, it seemed, going through Edin Visca down that side – suggested otherwise and that may prompt a return for Marc Wilson who is quicker though not entirely reliable at times.
Another option would be to return Robbie Brady to left back but that is tied up to some extent with the striker situation.
Likely starter
If Long were fully fit, he would look a very likely starter with Walters on the right, but the manager may settle for keeping faith with the same supporting cast while replacing Daryl Murphy (a doubt, in any case, with a calf injury) with the Stoke City striker.
Walters should cause the Bosnian central defenders more discomfort than they were subjected to first time out while Wes Hoolahan, Brady (his goal notwithstanding) and Jeff Hendrick all have the potential to improve considerably assuming they are all retained.
Behind them, it is hard to see any change to the partnership of James McCarthy and Glenn Whelan who will surely have to contend with a little more from Miralem Pjanic in this second leg.
Extra-time, even penalties, will be possibilities that play on the mind of the manager but his team’s first priority will be not to blow things over the course of the 90 minutes.
While there is little enough basis for real confidence that Ireland can see the job through, there is plenty of reason for hope. “If we are beaten,” O’Neill promises of this second leg, “it won’t be for the want of trying.”
