European Championships Qualifer
Group D
Republic of Ireland v Germany
Aviva Stadium, 7.45pm
Live on RTÉ 2, Sky Sports 1
Having been sustained through much of this qualification race by the belief that there were enough twists and turns still in store to rob Scotland of their early advantage, Martin O’Neill now faces a daunting task just to steer Ireland safely down what’s supposed to be the home straight.
With Poland in Warsaw to come for Ireland after tonight’s clash with the world champions, it is Gordon Strachan who is talking these days about just how quickly things can change and O’Neill’s admission again that he would grab third place now if it only could be offered to him is evidence enough that the northerner doesn’t disagree.
Still, there was no hint of surrender about him yesterday: “We had to win a number of games after the defeat by Scotland in June and we’ve won two since then. Now, two of the most difficult games you could possibly imagine face us. So we have to be, and we will be, really positive in their outlook and I believe that we have the potential to cause a number of problems to Germany.”
Team spirit, he acknowledged would play its part, in the way, he suggested, that it had for the successful Northern Ireland side he was once a part of; a group that qualified for successive World Cups in the early 1980’s and beat West Germany home and away in the European Championship campaign that came in between.
“We had some wonderful players playing in the side,” he says, “but essentially we had to battle with every single ounce that we had during each game.
“At the same time, I looked over the border and saw the likes of Liam Brady, Frank Stapleton and people like that. The really good players that you had playing then and it seemed from a distance as if they didn’t possess the same sort of team spirit that we had.
“I think Jack Charlton and Mick McCarthy changed that but I think we’ve always had to fight for it. Does that mean it will be the same for the next 50 years, I don’t know. Maybe it will change but until it does, we are going to have to fight.”
‘Open up’
That said, he insisted: “We also have one or two players who can play a bit too and given the chance, they could open up the Germans.”
Ireland’s ability to generate that sort of chance will be central to the team’s prospects of getting anything out of the game for there is not much that might be identified as an actual weakness in Joachim Löw’s line up although they have conceded in five of their outings to date with the seven scored against them – two more than have got past Ireland – making them the leakiest of the competition’s current group leaders.
Still, after their famously slow start, they have taken 12 points from their last four games and brought their overall tally of goals to 22 with Thomas Müller alone having averaged more than one a game.
With Glenn Whelan, two centre halves and his first-choice right back missing O’Neill may still have options but they’re not what might be considered attractive.
Through the centre, he needs likely starters, David Meyler and Richard Keogh, to rise to the occasion in a way that, deep down, feels almost unfair even to ask of them. But then it's as tall an order for the full-backs with Cyrus Christie likely to start what will be only his second competitive game on one side and, barring a recall for Stephen Ward, Robbie Brady, on the other.
The 23-year-old is a good deal more experienced than Christie but hardly looked the finished article against the Poles as his error under pressure led to their goal and returning him to a more advanced role would make a certain amount of sense if Ward was playing regularly and well at Burnley. In fact, he’s hardly featured.
Pose a threat
There’s more than a hint of Championship against Champions League about it all but still O’Neill maintains that his side can pose a threat to the Germans. If so, then he seems bound to include Wes Hoolahan although the need to shore up midfield and offer some protection to the full backs makes suggested a slightly more restricted role out wide.
Given the likely nature of the contest, Shane Long seems the most likely candidate for the long striker's role with Jon Walters on one side and, assuming Aiden McGeady is not reckoned to be match fit, Hoolahan, or perhaps Daryl Murphy on the other.
If Ireland do actually create chances then there should at least with that lot be the potential to cause a bot of concern for Manuel Neuer.
The fear, though, must be that the team will instead become swamped in midfield and passed off the pitch as they were for spells in Gelsenkirchen where they found themselves hanging on through prolonged spells of German pressure at the other end.
David Forde did pretty well that night but the home side’s finishing was poor too. Key factors in Ireland still being in the game when they rallied late on and then scored.
Despite the home advantage, one suspects, the last gasp salvaging of a draw here would feel just as much like a victory this time.
And regardless of his assistant’s one liners about targeting six points, both men might settle for that too as they prepare for what promises to be a long night and hope against hope for good news from Glasgow even it if it means, as it most likely will, that Poland have consigned them to the play-offs.
Teams (probable) Republic of Ireland: Given (Stoke City); Christie (Derby County), O'Shea (Sunderland), Keogh (Derby County), Brady (Norwich City); Walters (Stoke City), McCarthy (Everton), Meyler (Derby County), Hendrick (Hull City), Hoolahan (Norwich City); Long (Southampton) Germany: Neuer (Bayern Munich); Hector (Cologne), Hummels (Borussia Dortmund), Boateng (Bayern Munich), Can (Liverpool); Kroos (Real Madrid), Schweinstiger (Manchester United), Gündogan (Borussia Dortmund); Götze (Bayern Munich), Müller (Bayern Munich), Özil (Arsenal). Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (ESP)
