Ah, Poland. Nobody could begrudge them Saturday’s victory in Warsaw – you owed them, we understand – but it couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Republic of Ireland. After 34 matches the world champions finally lose a qualifier three days before we visit the old mining town of Gelsenkirchen.
Scots rattled them, Poles beat them. Wounded German footballers. Great.
What needs to happen to escape the “city of a thousand fires” with a draw? Defensive solidity of the highest standard, a goalkeeping masterclass of Wojciech Szczesny proportions and the same sprinkle of luck that was cast over Warsaw on Saturday night.
Szczesny made some truly great saves, but Germany missed some clearcut chances. Thomas Müller and Mario Götze were so oddly poor. That won’t happen again.
Germany dominated possession, creating enough chances to win any match, but they had a miserable night in front of the inspired Arsenal goalkeeper. Somehow Poland survived the bombardment.
The only statistic that matters now is: 2-0.
Essentially Martin O’Neill’s Ireland are attempting highway robbery tonight. Nothing is impossible, but the plan and its execution must be flawless.
What we cannot do is attempt to imitate Poland’s deep-lying defensive setup. We won’t survive 90 minutes by clinging on for dear life. They will eventually expose us.
Now let’s be realistic. An away tie against any top-class footballing nation demands a resilient defensive wall. The Irish defence has yet to inspire such trust. Forget about nil-all. We must score to get a result, because I’d bet the holiday home in Courtown that Germany will rattle our net at least once tonight.
Different German team
Our hosts will be efficient and effective, but this is a different German team from the one we saw annex the World Cup in July. They have new fullbacks for starters – Philipp Lahm is a leader who cannot easily be replaced – as well as a wide player and a reconstructed central midfield. Very different. But hardly in decline.
Lahm’s retirement, while a major loss, pales in comparison with Bastian Schweinsteiger’s injury-enforced absence. This leaves a gaping hole in the engine. Schweinsteiger creates and maintains momentum, and controls most games he plays in. And he will put the boot in when the moment demands it.
There was no bite from the German anchors last Saturday, no Schweinsteiger yellow card for a borderline sending-off offence, none of the muscle and poise of Sami Khedira.
I saw none of those traits in Christoph Kramer or Toni Kroos against Poland, even considering that they were allowed plenty of time and space to pick out their passes. Kramer's illness sees him replaced by Julian Draxler, who was impressive in the last 20 minutes in Warsaw, so expect a radical change in attitude and presence.
Glenn Whelan should make a few statements as well. Have no doubt about that. Whelan will provide a screen in front of the Irish back four and probably pick up Götze when he drops deep. Kroos and Draxler must be harassed. Enter the fray, Stephen Quinn.
Jeff Hendrick played well against Italy in London, but Darron Gibson and Quinn seem best suited to put pressure on the German puppet masters.
Against Poland, the pace of Karim Bellarabi created numerous crossing and scoring opportunities. The battle between Bellarabi and Stephen Ward will be a deep concern this evening. Bellarabi is an Andros Townsend type of winger; maybe James McClean can provide the necessary cover, combined with an attacking threat. But it seems like a job for Jon Walters.
Lahm was so adventurous from right back that the space behind him was there to be exploited. His retirement and injury to left back Benedikt Höwedes makes them look a far shakier back four from the World Cup.
Catching out the fullbacks
If the new fullbacks, Antonio Rüdiger and Erik Durm, can be caught too far up the pitch simultaneously, chances will come. That’s presuming we can win the ball back in midfield. Running directly at their isolated centre-backs could yield a goal. But there are so many caveats. Hard to see Mats Hummels, Jérôme Boateng and Manuel Neuer, in particular, being so rusty again.
Neuer gifted Poland’s first goal to Arkadiusz Milik. It’s the old goalkeeping adage: if you come for the ball, you must get it. Neuer didn’t.
Poland's second goal came after a throw-in. Robert Lewandowski was on the outside and drifted inside, shielding Durm before passing to Sebastian Mila. Hummels was caught for pace. Two touches off a medium-length throw. Goal. Simple stuff.
Hummels must be invited to dribble out of defence, then surrounded. That’s a job that Shane Long would relish. The Long argument remains compelling, but Robbie Keane’s fast hat-trick against Gibraltar makes a Long start unlikely. Wesley Hoolahan and Aiden McGeady’s performances were good, too, but the opposition was so poor. That will be factored into Martin O’Neill’s team selection.
Long does so much work and provides the aerial presence essential to unsettling this German defence. And he will leave his boot in now and again, which will be needed tonight. Grabbing a result against Germany at home requires a level of collective grit yet to be shown by this Irish squad.
Three to bring in
I understand the need to bring in Walters, Whelan and Quinn though. These men can win possession and provide opportunities for counterattacks. If Long gets in ahead of Keane, then room can be made for Hoolahan. If not, Quinn will come in, as he did against Georgia, when he started ahead of Hoolahan.
O’Neill must be trusted, such is his experience, and while I agree with the decision not to announce the starting XI, leaving players dangling until they are in the dressing room could be detrimental, especially for set-piece organisation.
Against Georgia, there was an uncertainty in defence, and there is no room for that tonight. To have a chance, we need a Richard-Dunne-in-Moscow performance from John O’Shea. Having gone 33 qualification games without defeat, Germany are not going to lose the 34th and 35th, no matter how well Ireland play. Their DNA won’t allow it.
