The 12th and last interpro derby of the regular Guinness Pro 12 season is as significant and seismic as any of the 11 that have preceded it. Aside from all the usual connotations that come with an end-of-season Ulster-Leinster match, today's outcome will go some way to sealing their play-off fates.
In front of a 17,320 capacity Kingspan crowd, Leinster need a point to nail down a semi-final spot, and with a home game to come against Treviso next Saturday would seal a coveted home semi-final (no home side has yet to lose a semi-final). A win would virtually seal a home semi-final for Leinster with that game to spare, and accordingly, Leo Cullen has gone for something resembling a first-choice team.
More acute
For their part, Ulster’s need is more acute. They are close to must-win territory if they want retain their aspirations of a spot in the semi-finals, what with the Scarlets just two points adrift in fifth place pending their game against the Dragons today.
Ulster
finish away to the Ospreys, while Scarlets travel to Thomond Park in next Saturday’s concluding round of games.
Accordingly, Les Kiss also picks his strongest available side, with Andrew Trimble's return offsetting the loss of Tommy Bowe. Stuart McCloskey is reunited with Luke Marshall, and Chris Henry returning to a backrow now without the ballast of the departing Nick Williams. Henry's experience, in tandem with Iain Henderson's ball-carrying, at least offsets that loss to some degree.
Leinster recall Isa Nacewa, Garry Ringrose (Ben Te'o reverts from 13 to 12), Dave Kearney, Johnny Sexton, Jack McGrath, Tadhg Furlong, Devin Toner, Hayden Triggs and Jamie Heaslip. In both Sexton's and Heaslip's case, it is their sixth start of the season, and the latter's fifth in interpros.
Although their performance levels have been fitful, Leinster arrive as league leaders thanks to their game-winning savvy, strength up front and the best defence in the league.
That said, there were signs of them finding more fluidity in their win last time out at home to Edinburgh, in what was only their fifth offensive bonus point of the campaign,
More potent
Ulster appear to have the more potent backline, with Paddy Jackson’s form as playmaker- cum-goalkicker atoning for the somewhat so-so form of Ruan Pienaar this season. The settled McCloskey-Marshall axis gives giving them a potency and creativity that has seen their outside backs dip their bread of late – none more so than in-form Jared Payne.
His lines of running, support play, eye for space and decision- making have flourished in his recent run at full-back, and he accounted for three of the outside backs’ six tries against Zebre.
His match-up with Rob Kearney, who has a point to prove with the South African tour looming, is one of many eye-catching head-to-heads, as is the Marshall-Ringrose battle and, of course, Jackson v Sexton.
The degree to which the creative Ulster backline can penetrate the league’s meanest defence will be intriguing.
Leinster look to have more power up front, especially in the set-pieces, and more impact off the bench, but Ulster’s greater need and home advantage may just sway it narrowly their way.
