The Ulster pair of Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding, neither of whom featured in any of the matches in the Six Nations, are likely to be included in a 32-man Irish squad which Joe Schmidt announces today for the forthcoming three-Test tour of South Africa, with Ian Madigan possibly set to miss out.
Madigan has been the de facto Irish back-up outhalf to Johnny Sexton throughout the World Cup and Six Nations, whereas Jackson has been confined to one appearance off the bench against Romania in the World Cup.
However, on foot of Madigan’s decision to join Bordeaux Bègles next season, Schmidt described the player’s move as unfortunate in the aftermath of the Six Nations finale at home to Scotland when Madigan was an unused replacement.
Furthermore, Madigan has been confined to just one start in the last eight weeks with Leinster, while his three appearances as a replacement in that time have amounted to a mere 22 minutes on the pitch, giving him just 88 minutes of rugby in eight weeks.
Superb form
In contrast, Jackson has been in superb form as a regular, staring number ten for Ulster. He has started all of their last five games as well as starting 20 games this season; Madigan has just started nine.
Even the fit-again Olding has had more game time than Jackson of late, and his versatility would compensate for losing Madigan’s ability to play in several different positions as well.
Similarly, the form and versatility of Luke Marshall, who can play at both inside and outside centre, could see him included ahead of midfield partner Stuart McCloskey, whose new three-year deal with Ulster was confirmed yesterday.
Luke Fitzgerald, electric on the wing for Leinster last Friday, can also provide midfield cover.
Another tight call will concern the outside backs, where Simon Zebo’s recent keyhole surgery has left his selection vulnerable. Although Zebo is apparently back running this week, his fitness is thought to be touch and go.
Despite starting in five of Ireland's games at the World Cup and the Six Nations, he is seemingly in a tight race for one back three spot, given the probable inclusion of Keith Earls, Fitzgerald, Andrew Trimble and Rob Kearney.
The versatility of both Olding and Marshall would also facilitate moving Jared Payne to fullback, if needs be, where he has been playing all his rugby for Ulster this season, and impressively so.
With Ireland certain to target the first game in Cape Town against a Springboks team under a new coaching structure in their first Test since the World Cup, the prospect of a second Test at altitude in Johannesburg followed by the third Test in Port Elizabeth makes it likely that the majority of the squad will see game time.
Accordingly, it seems likely that three scrumhalves will travel, namely Conor Murray, Eoin Reddan and Kieran Marmion, and three specialist hookers, captain Rory Best, Seán Cronin and Richardt Strauss.
Return to action
In the absence of
Cian Healy
, David Kilcoyne looks best placed to travel as back-up to Jack McGrath, with
Tadhg Furlong
and
Finlay Bealham
travelling as back-up to
Mike Ross
on the other side of the scrum while having the capacity to also cover the loose-head side.
Donnacha Ryan's 50-minute return to action for a Munster A side last week after suffering concussion in the consecutive defeats to Leinster and Connacht in early April would appear to constitute a strong pointer towards his return to the squad after missing the Irish squad get-together in Johnstown House at the end of April.
Timely boost
Ryan will most likely be named along with Devin Toner, Ultan Dillane and
Iain Henderson
, whose return to form and fitness is a timely boost for the Irish squad. His ability to play at blindside flanker as well as lock also gives the management scope to include six backrowers or a fifth secondrow, in which case
Mick Kearney
or
Peter Browne
could be an uncapped inclusion.
That said, the absence of Seán O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony and Josh van der Flier limits the backrow options. CJ Stander, Jamie Heaslip, Tommy O'Donnell and Rhys Ruddock – the loose forwards on duty in Ireland's Six Nations win at home to Scotland – look sure to travel. Jordi Murphy's performance against Ulster last Friday also looks like earning him a place in the squad, with Chris Henry also in the running.
