Joe Schmidt will reveal his hand for Saturday's rematch with a vengeful All Blacks at lunchtime today, and the expectation is that he will stick with all bar the injured Jordi Murphy from the starting team in Chicago's Soldier Field last Saturday week. That would seemingly leave a straight choice between Josh van der Flier and Seán O'Brien to wear the number seven jersey, with O'Brien's proven big-game experience perhaps tilting the odds in his favour.
While still on the road to full match fitness, O'Brien's body of work at Test level ought to stand to him. The 43-times capped flanker – a Lions Test starter – was a standout performer when the sides last met at the Aviva Stadium three years ago when New Zealand escaped with a last-ditch 24-22 win. That he was taken off for the last quarter of Ireland's 52-21 win over Canada last Saturday also seemed significant.
O’Brien would be more readymade for the backrow than Peter O’Mahony, and given O’Brien is perhaps the least likely of the backrow trio to complete the 80 minutes, there would be an argument for having van der Flier on the bench again.
In light of CJ Stander’s performance in Chicago this might conceivably, and a little remarkably, mean no place for Peter O’Mahony, unless of course Schmidt went for a 6-2 split on the bench.
Surprise
Despite the form of Keith Earls and Garry Ringrose last Saturday it would be a surprise if the former replaced Simon Zebo, given he probably produced his best all-round display for Ireland in Soldier Field, and an even bigger surprise if Schmidt and co broke up the favoured and proven Robbie Henshaw-Jared Payne midfield alliance.
Similarly, Donnacha Ryan and Devin Toner provide a balanced secondrow, and despite Iain Henderson’s return to fitness, Ultan Dillane’s impact in Chicago and his big ball-carrying effort last Saturday ought to see no change in the secondrow.
Luke McGrath is pushing Kieran Marmion as back-up to Conor Murray, but a likelier change is the cover to Johnny Sexton, following Paddy Jackson’s six from six haul from all angles on his return last Saturday, as against Joey Carbery’s one from four ratio in his two eye-catching cameos over the last two Saturdays, which palpably generated a buzz around the Irish fans whenever he touched the ball.
"Paddy kicked the ball really well throughout the week, especially the back-end from Thursday and into Saturday," said Ireland's skills and kicking coach, Richie Murphy. "Six from six was really good considering there were two touchlines and two from just inside the 15s.
“Joey will be a little disappointed. He’s had four international kicks and made one . . . That’s where he’s at at the moment but there’s no doubt that he’s capable and will have no problems once he gets used to that environment. He hasn’t kicked a lot for Leinster this year – I think he kicked against Glasgow and was five from six. The more he is put into that situation the more comfortable he’ll become.”
And his time will come.
Think tank
Steve Hansen and the All Blacks think tank have more to weigh up given the spate of players ruled out since Chicago or returning from injury. Up front the expectation is that the fit-again Brodie Retallick and, if he has proven his fitness, Sam Whitelock, will both return, thereby providing an altogether more proven Test combination than the makeshift one in Chicago.
Perhaps significantly, Whitelock is due to attend one of the All Blacks customary pre-match fan events, namely a training session with underage players at Seapoint in aid of Unicef, tomorrow. Against that, Scott Barrett's form has been one of the tour's bonuses so far for the All Blacks.
Either way, this would also facilitate Jerome Kaino returning to his natural position of blindside flanker.
Scrumhalf will have been a real area of debate. Aaron Smith, outstanding for the All Blacks over the last five seasons, was unusually off colour upon his return to the starting line-up in Chicago, whereas TJ Perenara has looked their form scrumhalf on tour based on his appearance off the bench that day, and perhaps significantly he was rested from last Saturday's 68-10 rout of Italy, when the All Blacks seamlessly made a dozen changes.
Given the injuries to Ryan Crotty and George Moala, it seems likely that the centre partnership of last Saturday Anton Lienart-Brown (who was exceptional) and Molokai Fekitoa will probably be retained, while the inventive Israel Dagg offered a compelling case to be retained as well.
With bad weather forecast, there is also the heightened possibility that one or both managements could opt for a 6-2 split on the bench.
IRELAND (possible): Kearney; Trimble, Payne, Henshaw, Zebo; Sexton, Murray; McGrath, Best (c), Furlong; D Ryan, Toner; Stander, O'Brien, Heaslip.
Replacements: Cronin, Healy, F Bealham, Dillane, van der Flier, Marmion, Jackson, Ringrose.
NEW ZEALAND (possible): B Smith; Dagg, Fekitoa, Lienert-Brown, J Savea; B Barrett, Perenara; Moody, Coles, Franks; Retallick, S Barrett or Whitelock; Kaino, Cane, Read (c).
Replacements: Taylor, Crockett, Faumuina, S Barrett or Tuipolutu, A Savea or Squire, A Smith, Cruden, Naholo.
