Rarely has a selection been so shrouded in question marks as Joe Schmidt's first team announcement as Ireland coach today for Saturday's opening Guinness Series match against Samoa. The composition of the team is further complicated by doubts over the participation of Paul O'Connell and Johnny Sexton.
Perhaps critically, last week Schmidt said that Tuesday would be a cut-off point in terms of selection, if players had not returned to full training by then. While Cian Healy and Seán O'Brien made the cut, O'Connell had a limited role on Tuesday, and Sexton was the one player who took no part altogether.
If O’Connell is not to start and Sexton not to feature, this would enforce the feeling that Schmidt and his fitness staff may well be looking to the upcoming games as a block of three rather than just putting out Ireland’s first-choice XV.
Rumours abounded as to a few surprise selections, perhaps with doubts as to whether all of Healy, Mike Ross and O'Brien will start three games in a row – all the more so after recent injury enforced inactivity – but Ireland assuredly have a strong match-day 23 given the threat posed by Samoa.
Captaincy implications
All this, of course, has implications for the captaincy this Saturday at any rate. During the squad's previous, two-day get-together in early September, Schmidt had said that there would be no announcement regarding the captaincy prior to the week before the squad came together – ie a fortnight ago.
That any announcement was deferred from then would suggest it hinged upon the calf strain which sidelined O'Connell from training last week. That it has now been deferred until as late as two days before the game suggests, possibly, that O'Connell is not going to make the starting line-up. This is something that forwards coach John Plumtree intimated on Tuesday when questioning whether O'Connell could play for 80 minutes.
If O'Connell is named on the bench, which would seem preferable to resting him altogether, presumably he would still be favoured to captain the side against Australia and New Zealand. Logically, perhaps, Jamie Heaslip would then be captain against Samoa, as he has been as indestructible and consistent as ever this season; was the Ireland captain all of last season, Schmidt regularly turned to him at Leinster when Leo Cullen was sidelined and if any man can start these three tests in succession it's Heaslip.
To revert to Brian O’Driscoll, who is intent on retiring at the end of the season, would make less obvious sense even though he is Ireland’s most decorated captain, and likewise Peter O’Mahony, even allowing for how much he impressed the management on the North American summer tour.
With or without O'Connell, the secondrow is difficult to call given the additional absence of Donnacha Ryan. The vibes around Devin Toner are very strong, after such an impressive summer tour, the undoubted improvements in his game and even being presented to the media last week. It's hard to believe that Mike McCarthy, such an honest toiler, would miss out, but then Dan Tuohy has been going well.
Pick themselves
The front and backrows would appear to pick themselves, although choices abound on the bench, and if Sexton is to be rested one imagines it would be from the match-day 23 altogether. After all, his involvement as an unused sub in Racing's defeat to Biarritz and everything associated with that trip may have been a contributory factor to him sitting out Tuesday's training, along with his slight hip flexor muscle problem.
Although Ian Madigan clearly ended last season above Paddy Jackson in the pecking order, events this season would suggest that has been flipped on its head. The arrival and form of Jimmy Gopperth at Leinster has restricted Madigan to just three league starts at outhalf, as well as one more at fullback, whereas Paddy Jackson has remained Ulster's leading playmaker and goalkicker in Europe as well as the big league games. He has also been playing well this season.
Potential
The general consensus is that the other two areas of debate are at inside centre and wing, with the experience of Gordon D'Arcy vying with the potential of Luke Marshall for the former. Whether a change at 10 could be a factor or not is a moot point, as Jackson has a very good understanding with Marshall, but D'Arcy's form has been good of late.
Schmidt's options at wing have been seriously clipped by the loss of Simon Zebo, Craig Gilroy and now Keith Earls. Despite this, Andrew Trimble finds himself behind the three other wingers in the squad, Tommy Bowe, Fergus McFadden and Dave Kearney. Bowe is sure to start, leaving the choice between McFadden, perhaps more physical and more experienced, as well as excellent last time out for Leinster, or Dave Kearney, who has looked physically even stronger and quicker this season.
Like much else, it looks a very hard one to call.
PROBABLE IRELAND TEAM (to face Samoa): : R Kearney;T Bowe, B O'Driscoll , G D'Arcy, F McFadden; P Jackson, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, D Fitzpatrick; M McCarthy, D Toner; P O'Mahony, C Henry, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: J McGrath, S Cronin, M Ross , P O'Connell, S O'Brien, E Reddan, I Madigan, D Kearney.
