On the face of it, this is about as daunting a challenge as squaring up to the All Blacks in last year’s autumnal finale. South Africa have just beaten the very same New Zealand and arrive unchanged and match-hardened. Ireland are injury hit and comparatively rusty. The fear in the air is palpable, yet Ireland are at home, and come the early evening kick-off under the Aviva floodlights, that counts for something.
Indeed, for a while in the Noughties, that came to mean plenty. In the five Dublin meetings since Ireland were last in South Africa, Ireland won three in a row in 2004, ‘06 and ‘09, before the Springboks re-asserted their historical supremacy at the Aviva four and two years ago.
Under Heyneke Meyer, the Springboks have played 33 games, winning 24, drawing two and losing just seven, five of those against the All Blacks and two in Australia. Against northern hemisphere teams, they have won 13, drawn one and lost none, completing three-game winning tours in each of the last two Novembers against England, Scotland and Ireland, and then France, Scotland and Wales last year. They last lost to European opposition in Scotland four years ago.
Run the show
Joe Schmidt says this will be as complete a test as there could be. With Victor Matfield back to run the show, the Boks’ line-out is excellent and their scrum is as powerful as always.
Given the absence of Cian Healy, and Mike Ross’s lack of rugby recently, not to mention the loss of Marty Moore and Nathan White, this is quite a concern, with referee Romain Poite preferring to reward the team that inches forward, however they do so. At least the rain is forecast to relent before kick-off.
In both of their recent clashes with New Zealand, it was a case of the biter being bit as the Springboks forced more turnovers than Richie McCaw and company.
Indeed, the top three poachers in the Rugby Championship were all Boks, namely Duane Vermeulen (who many, including Schmidt, believe to be the player of the year), Marcell Coetzee and Bryan Habana. The winger, who has with 56 tries from 103 tests, may not have the cheetah-like pace of yore, but he is a more complete rugby player.
Even sharper
Ireland were peerless in recycling the ball when winning last season’s Six Nations, but, as Peter O’Mahony acknowledges, they will have to be even sharper today.
“We have to be more physical. We have got to be technically better come breakdown. We got away with some things that we won’t get away with. Not that we were illegal, we just weren’t fast enough to some breakdowns.
“You have guys like Vermeulen and Coetzee, who will be over the ball so fast. Habana even. The du Plessis brothers are both very good at it. There’s six or eight guys who are a real poach threat. With a lot of teams you won’t have that so we have to be quick come breakdown. That’s where rugby is gone and it is certainly an area we will have to improve on.”
As has been well documented, these Boks have also sought to keep the ball in hand more – going through 29 phases for a drop goal against the Kiwis in Ellis Park; or translating turnover ball into an 80-metre counter-attacking try; or moving lineout ball both ways across the width of the pitch by using their blindside wingers and outside centre as decoys.
More space
This unpredictability demands opposing defences fill the line more, which in turn creates more space for the Boks’ kicking game. Yet it is partly the memory of what Ireland achieved in terms of the performance against the All Blacks that also provides hope.
There’s also, perhaps not unhelpfully, that fear factor.
“Fear is something that always drives me,” says O’Mahony. “It is something that we have always used, fear of losing and letting your team down. Fear of not playing well in the green jersey. Fear of letting the fans down. It always plays a card for you. If you are not fearful before an international, you might as well go away home.”
Sean Cronin’s enforced selection should actually give Ireland more ballast with ball in hand and, if the scrum holds up, Ireland still have the spine of secondrow, backrow and halfback intact.
Where there’s Paul O’Connell, missing two years ago, there’s hope, such are his leadership qualities. Devin Toner may be suitably inspired, and another Munster dog, O’Mahony himself, is recharged and hungry.
Akin to Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray is in the form of his life, and Johnny Sexton, for all Handré Pollard’s undoubted gifts, is arguably the most complete out-half around. In the 20-year-old’s first Test in Europe, Sexton could also be the more reliable place-kicker.
If the intriguing if untried pairing of Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne doesn’t concede an inch on the gain line, and an early hit or carry by Henshaw can galvanise home team and crowd alike, Ireland will be a good deal more competitive than is generally believed.
But there’s the match-hardness thing and the probability that Ireland will improve over the three weeks.
A glance through the two benches and it’s hard not to see the Boks pulling through, albeit in a one-score game.
