The Irish starting team is expected to fall along anticipated lines when Joe Schmidt unveils his opening hand in this season's Six Nations championship at lunchtime on Thursday for the opening assignment against a confident Scottish side in Murrayfield this Saturday. That said, the replacements bench may reveal a few less familiar names.
The main points of discussion would appear to have been the backrow, as ever, the secondrow and the back three, with one of those combinations having been simplified to some degree due to the loss of Peter O’Mahony.
Perming three starters and one replacement from the eight players in the original 40-man squad was always going to be difficult, and even without O’Mahony – whose absence denies the side of perhaps its most proficient backrow lineout operator, whether starting or off the bench – that must still have been a difficult task.
Nevertheless, on the presumption that Seán O’Brien has trained fully this week and is fit to go, he will presumably start at ‘7’ alongside CJ Stander on the blindside and Jamie Heaslip at eight. That was the combination which started Ireland’s bruising rematch with New Zealand at the Aviva Stadium, when O’Brien reminded everyone of his exceptional qualities as a carrier, tackler and poacher at the breakdown, and also that he does not need to be particularly match-hardened in the process.
Josh van der Flier, who then replaced O’Brien when he was ruled out of the Australian game a week later, looks favoured to be involved above the other three backrowers in the squad having also proved his virtues off the bench as a 36th minute replacement for Jordi Murphy in Chicago when still being Ireland’s second highest tackler over 80 minutes.
Donnacha Ryan, who started both games against New Zealand, is vying with Iain Henderson, who came in for Ryan from the start against Australia, as Devin Toner's secondrow partner, while it is also, perhaps, a close call between Jack McGrath and Cian Healy at loosehead. Then again, McGrath started all three of those games and hardly did much wrong.
Following the loss of Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray looks certain to be partnered by Paddy Jackson, who will thus be making his sixth start in eight games for Ireland, with the midfield partnership of Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose looking nailed on.
As in the backrow, eight back three players were named in the original squad, although here again Andrew Trimble's inability to train fully fit may help to rule him out given Schmidt's preference for his starting XV to have run together in training on match weeks. In which case, Keith Earls and Simon Zebo look set to flank Rob Kearney at fullback.
With Andrew Conway also ruled out, that would leave Tommy Bowe, Craig Gilroy and Tiernan O'Halloran vying for one spot on the bench, and despite O'Halloran's strong form this season, it looks as if Bowe's experience will be chosen here.
It transpires that Ian Keatley did train with the squad last week, thus re-enforcing the feeling that he will be on the bench as back-up for Paddy Jackson, while Luke McGrath is putting increasing pressure on Kieran Marmion, whose form and particularly greater experience as part of Irish match-day squads should count in his favour.
Up front, there could be a couple of relative surprises in the inclusion of the uncapped Munster hooker Niall Scannell, and possibly his frontrow partner John Ryan, who made his debut as a replacement against Canada, ahead of James Tracy and Finlay Bealham.
Scannell has become Munster’s first-choice hooker this season, with 16 of his 18 games coming from the start, including all six of Munster’s European Cup pool games. By contrast, although Tracy was capped against Canada, he has effectively been Leinster’s second-choice hooker, with just seven starts, and has his last two outings for them showed, by comparison his darts remain a work in progress.
IRELAND (possible v Scotland, Saturday, Murrayfield, 2.25): R Kearney; K Earls, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, S Zebo; P Jackson, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best (capt), T Furlong; D Ryan, DToner; CJ Stander, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.
Replacements: N Scannell, C Healy, J Ryan, I Henderson, J van der Flier, K Marmion, I Keatley, T Bowe.
