If it comes to pass that Ireland don't win the third Test and thus achieve something no other home union has ever done – and which the only single nations to have done so have been New Zealand (once) and France (twice) – then for sure last Saturday's second Test will be filed alongside the All Blacks' last-ditch win at the Aviva in 2013 as another one that got away.
Then Ireland led 19-0 before being hauled back by an All Blacks side which completed a perfect season with a 24-22 win courtesy of Aaron Cruden’s twice-taken conversion to Ryan Crotty’s try in overtime. It’s said you learn more from your defeats than your wins, and the painful memory of that day helped Ireland see out taut, tight wins subsequently.
The title-clinching win over France in Paris that season, the home wins over Australia and France the following season, and the first Test win in Cape Town (even seeing out the last Boks drive for the try-line in the same right-hand corner where they had failed to keep out New Zealand) all spring to mind.
This time, Ireland let slip a 16-point lead in an even shorter space of time, but in altogether different circumstances. Thus, when asking if there is one primary cause for this sharper, more dramatic turnaround, the answer is most probably not. More likely there were a myriad of factors.
To what extent fatigue and the altitude was a factor can only be guessed from those watching. Almost all those who have been asked, Conor Murray, Stuart Olding, Rory Best, Quinn Roux and others, have maintained that playing in the rarefied air of Ellis Park was not a factor.
Over-played
Of course, this squad has a no-excuse culture, even if, in private, the players remain fairly sure the altitude was over-played. Nonetheless, former players believe the loss of energy was attributable to this, and Joe Schmidt himself detected a tiredness in that fateful last quarter.
Certainly the way Ireland’s line speed significantly dropped off suggested fatigue – whether caused by the altitude and/or the demands of the season and both Test matches – was a factor, especially when taken in tandem with missed tackles.
Ireland were credited with missing 14 tackles, while making 117, as against the Boks’ 10 missed tackles out of 75. Looking back through that second half, at least nine of them were missed in the concluding half-hour. Credit too has to be reserved for the Boks, who began to pass and catch more accurately across the width of the pitch, with runners coming onto the ball harder.
The venue must have had something to do with this. Ellis Park is a high-scoring ground, where a sudden wave of tries is not uncommon. The 32-26 result was close to the Springboks' average scoreline of 33-24 over their previous 25 post-apartheid matches at their iconic Johannesburg ground.
It is a difficult venue for spectators to get to, hence the empty seats. So it is generally only games against the All Blacks or the British & Irish Lions that fill it out. And the Boks’ results against the All Blacks in Ellis Park highlight how conducive the ground is to high-scoring games – 20-27, 27-25, 27-38, 40-26, 46-40, 32-25, 32-22.
Allister Coetzee subsequently stated that it was the Boks’ deliberate intention to have Ireland play the Springboks at Ellis Park for the first time ever, and to utilise this advantage fully – not least by introducing four more local Lions players from half-time onwards so as to finish the game with seven on the pitch.
The debate over the impact of both benches has clearly agitated Schmidt. This tour has been used partially to strengthen Ireland’s depth, and maybe that compromised the match-day depth.
Murray did not believe Ireland’s failure to close out the game was due to becoming nervous, but perhaps they lost their nerve a tad.
An example was just past the 50-minute mark, with Ireland still 19-3 ahead. The reward for a big Irish scrum was a penalty up the line and a lineout on the South African 22.
But from this, Ireland opted for three one-off runners and a pick-and-jam before Murray launched a box kick which Ruan Combrinck won in the air for the Springboks to counter-attack.
It didn't seem the most adventurous ploy, and with the rider that "hindsight is wonderful", Murray accepted that perhaps Ireland should have kept hold of the ball. Then again, his box-kick was contestable, and it was the rare sight of Ireland's flawed chase, and Damian de Allende fending Robbie Henshaw, which saw JP Pietersen break upfield.
It was something of a momentum shift and ultimately led to Willie le Roux exploiting another weak link in Ireland’s chase, following Paddy Jackson’s touch-finder and Combrinck’s quick throw to set up the latter’s try.
Tactical ploys
There would be more mistakes with other tactical ploys subsequently. There was the attempted switch between Jackson and Andrew Trimble which saw the latter knock-on, the penalty for crossing against Henshaw after a botched midfield move which, apparently, was being set up for an attempted drop goal.
It’s highly unusual, indeed almost unique, to see a team coached by Schmidt concede such a swift barrage of points, all the more so after the palpable impact which Andy Farrell has had.
It may sound strange to say this, but this tour will have plenty of positives, as well as negatives, to sustain this squad into the future.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
