This week marks the 92nd anniversary of the first Test match to be held at Ellis Park between the Springboks and the Wallabies. The Boks hold an dominant 9-1 record in Johannesburg.
The only Australian victory in Johannesburg came when the great Wallaby captain, John Thornett, led his team off the pitch as winners way back in 1963.
It is 15 years since the Wallabies had any success in South Africa and they have notched up only four wins there since the game went professional.
Not great stats when arriving at a venue that is 1,753 metres above sea level. With much less oxygen in the air, visiting teams physically struggle to maintain the mighty effort required to storm the fortress that is Ellis Park.
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Since 1928, the grandstands of this mammoth stadium have yawned into the South African sky like the jaws of some primeval beast, devouring all who dare to enter. What chance does a mob of cute little Wallabies stand in such a wild and hostile environment?
Well, not much.
Despite a week of sunshine on the Highveld, rain is predicted for the match. The Wallabies did their rain dance before the third Lions Test and that foul weather was the foundation of their win.
However, the chances of another lightning-induced 20-minute rest period that gave the two Australian giants Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou an extra breather and allowed them to put in a far longer shift than Joe Schmidt could have wished for is a long shot. But not impossible.
With the Mandela Challenge Trophy up for grabs, there is also the small mater of playing the world champions at home. They are the best team on the planet, oozing power and athleticism across every position.
Since the first Australian tour of South Africa in 1933, the Springboks have dominated their home encounters with a 75 per cent winning record. Two years out from the next World Cup and once again the Boks appear to be on track to win that most awful of American terms: a three-peat.
Like all great teams that possess longevity, the South Africans are not looking back. They are evolving.
In their recent home series against a fighting Italian side the Springboks displayed the awesome latent power that lies within their athletic backline and produced some stunning running rugby.
While the rugby world focused on the South Africans’ trick plays – ones that included the midfield lifting of second rowers to catch a lobbed pass from the halfback and create a maul – these were merely gimmicks to entertain the crowd. Like the froth on the top of the pint, the substance was below these frivolous circus acts.
Against the Italians, the Springboks did not dilute their enormous physicality or lessen their desire to scrummage their opponents into the third row of the stand.
Their mauling remains the best in world rugby as is their tactical across-field kicking. They have kept all of these weapons steely sharp in the arsenal.
Their evolution is revealed in a world-class running backline, unleashed to use possession from selected set plays. The maturing of the Boks’ creative outhalf, Manie Libbok, is crucial in their evolution.
Traditionally South African rugby has always selected a kicking outhalf and kept free spirits out of their number 10 jersey. Libbok’s creativity has empowered the Springboks to attack with venom and purpose.
It is early days in the Springboks’ conversion to the running game. But if they remain true to their newfound cause it is great news for the global game as the ocean of attacking talent inside the South African squad is unquestionable.
The style of rugby played in winning the last two World Cups can diplomatically be described as negative. It was diabolically boring to the point of damaging to the game.
Inside South Africa, of course, they couldn’t care less how the Springboks played, they simply adore them because they are winners. That is hard to argue with.
The greatest proof of the changed mindset inside the Springboks can be seen in how they have selected their starting XV and bench. The controversial policy of selecting seven reserve forwards in the so-called “Bomb Squad” has thankfully been defused.
Rassie Erasmus has returned to a traditional 5-3 reserves split that includes three highly talented backs. We can safely assume this is not because he believes that the Wallaby scrum is like Uluru, a giant immovable Australian rock. The return to a 5-3 bench is because the Boks are experimenting with the running game.
I do not believe that Erasmus is totally convinced about the running game, but I am convinced that if the Springboks embrace running rugby then they will dominate the globe for years to come. The production line of talent flowing from their schools, clubs and Currie Cup programmes is awesome. If running rugby is added to their game then few teams, if any, will hold them.
That does not mean the Wallabies are without hope. Against the Lions the Australians proved that they have around 25 quality players who have the ability to stand toe-to-toe with the world’s best.
However, the highly questionable recall of 35-year-old James O’Connor to outhalf tells us two things: the talent pool in Australian outhalves is shallow and right now the Wallabies are scraping the bottom of that pool.
As Ireland experienced last year, the opening game at altitude may be a painful learning experience that will extend the Wallabies’ long run of defeats at Ellis Park.
Like their first Test against the Lions, the Wallabies may not be mentally prepared for the exceptional talent, power and physicality that the Springboks will produce.
However, next week at sea level in Cape Town the Australians may have made the necessary adjustments to produce a winning performance.
This is not a poor Australian team, but they go into battle against an exceptional collective of South African players and coaches. It will be at altitude, inside a venue that holds little joy for those who wear gold.
Ireland play Australia and the Springboks this November, so this match has real meaning for Irish rugby.
