Lions Tour, third Test: Australia v British & Irish Lions, Accor Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, 11am Irish time
Well then, follow that? The winner takes it all but while the Lions undoubtedly took the spoils last week and the series, it could be argued that the sport, Australian rugby and even World Rugby, were also beneficiaries of that classic second Test.
Last week’s game had a bit of everything; skill, physicality, errors, discipline, indiscipline, tries galore and jeopardy until the last play of the game and even beyond. Although the Wallabies will desperately want what they will see as some sort of redemption and revenge, and the Lions are hunting a first unbeaten series since 1974 and a first 3-0 series win in Australia since 1904, realistically there is less on the line. It seems hard to imagine this series final scaling those heights again.
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What’s more, Sydney has been hit with days of persistent and often heavy rain, which hasn’t seemingly put a dampener on the spirits of the Red Army which has been invading the city after various detours between Melbourne and here. But it is forecast to strike again on match day.
Both Andy Farrell and Joe Schmidt faced contrasting but difficult challenges this week, the former trying to refocus a team which has secured a series win and celebrated accordingly, and Schmidt endeavouring to revive a group of players whom he described as seriously deflated, likening the fallout from last week’s defeat to a grieving process.
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At face value, Schmidt’s challenge looks more difficult. Farrell had planned to give his squad a two-day respite regardless of last week’s result and says that has rejuvenated them.
A week ago, the Wallabies were on a vengeful, do-or-die mission to keep their hopes of a series win alive and were perfectly primed with a trimmed down, classically Schmidt-devised game plan, operating off slicker lineout launch plays and then runners off Jake Gordon, who mixed his game with a Conor Murray-like display of box-kicking while also taking his try well.
The fit-again duo of Rob Valetini and Will Skelton injected real force into their carrying game and combined with Schmidt-esque efficiency at the breakdown, they then cut loose when the Lions were reduced to 14 men for 10 minutes.
Calm and composed, the Lions stayed in the hunt through their ruthlessness in the Wallabies 22, upped their physicality in defence, discipline and breakdown work, their bench was excellent and they recorded two 14-phase tries to complete a brilliant and deserved comeback.
So, on the presumption that the Wallabies will seek to play similarly, what has changed and how might things pan out differently? Well, for starters, Gordon has been surprisingly omitted to accommodate Nic White in what will be a farewell Wallabies appearance for the spiky 35-year-old.
[ Wallabies are finding it hard to move on as Lions look to make historyOpens in new window ]
This, Schmidt explained, is designed to incorporate White’s kicking game for the rainy night but also in the belief that the players would want to send the veteran off into the sunset with a win.
“I know it’s part of the motivation. It is. He’s so well respected in the group,” said Schmidt of White. “He’s been at the top of the game for a dozen years. So, when you make that contribution over 12 years, as I said, it’s not sentimentality, but it is a reality when someone is important to the group, that the group want to support them.”
After deciding to retire last week, White said he had been considering asking Schmidt if he could run water at Accor Stadium so he’d finish in his boots.
“I didn’t see it coming,” admitted White, “but really appreciate it. And yeah, I won’t let the boys down.”
Who knows, it may well prove inspired. Tate McDermott has been retained as backup as his running game from the base is well suited to changing the game up in the final 20 or 30 minutes.
That is also more likely to come into play given Schmidt has returned to a conventional 5-3 split on the bench. Instead of changing up the game at scrumhalf, McDermott had to play an hour on the wing, where he was targeted by the Lions.
It may even have contributed to Ben Donaldson not being brought on, even though Tom Lynagh’s impact became increasingly negligible.
However, the Wallabies have not only lost Valetini’s explosive carrying again, but they’ve been hit up front by the loss of tighthead Allan Alaalatoa, as well as both of last week’s hookers after Dave Porecki was forced out due to a gash on his Achilles picked up in training.
However, this has meant call-ups for the dynamic duo of Tamiela Tupou at tighthead and Brandon Paenga-Amosa as backup hooker to the promoted Billy Pollard, and plenty of pundits and Wallabies supporters believe both should have been in the squad anyway.
What’s more, it will be Paenga-Amosa’s fourth appearance against the Lions, having done so for Western Force, the AUNZ Invitational XV and the First Nations Pasifika XV.
This could provide the kind of fresh energy the Wallabies need, but it could also be disruptive and they’ve been unlucky to ultimately only have Valetini for one of six halves.
Farrell firmly believes this Lions team has not played to the maximum of its ability to date, but admitted: “I don’t think you ever do.”
He added: “We can say if we put the first half of the first Test and the second half of the second Test together, would you get a perfect performance? It never really happens like that.
“The simple reason is that at this type of level, two good quality sides are always going to cancel each other out somewhere along the line within the process of 80 minutes of rugby. I suppose that is going to be the same again on Saturday.”
Farrell also proved he is no sentimentalist in promoting James Ryan and Blair Kinghorn while restoring Ben Earl to the matchday 23. This means only 27 players have been used in the series to date, 11 of whom will have started all three Tests.
An opportunity may arise, however, due to an injury doubt over winger Tommy Freeman. Mack Hansen would be an option if fully fit but he has missed the first two Tests with a foot injury and was deemed “85 per cent” fit earlier in the week. Owen Farrell may move to centre with Huw Jones going to the wing, while James Lowe and Jamie Osborne are also options.
Nevertheless, Farrell’s selection looks like a statement of intent and perhaps demonstrates a steely-eyed determination to complete the series whitewash which Farrell had targeted from the outset.
After last week’s scare, it looks even more achievable as the week has progressed too. Perhaps history calls them.
AUSTRALIA: Tom Wright (Brumbies); Max Jorgensen (Force), Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (Waratahs), Len Ikitau (Brumbies), Dylan Pietsch (Waratahs); Tom Lynagh (Reds), Nic White (Force); James Slipper (Brumbies), Billy Pollard (Brumbies), Taniela Tupou (Waratahs); Nick Frost (Brumbies), Will Skelton (La Rochelle); Tom Hooper (Brumbies), Fraser McReight (Reds), Harry Wilson (capt, Reds).
Replacements: Brandon Paenga-Amosa (Force), Angus Bell (Waratahs), Zane Nonggorr (Reds), Jeremy Williams (Force), Langi Gleeson (Waratahs), Tate McDermott (Reds), Ben Donaldson (Force), Andrew Kellaway (Waratahs).
BRITISH & IRISH LIONS: Hugo Keenan (Leinster/Ireland); Tommy Freeman (Northampton Saints/England), Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors/Scotland), Bundee Aki (Connacht/Ireland), Blair Kinghorn (Toulouse/Scotland); Finn Russell (Bath/Scotland), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster/Ireland); Andrew Porter (Leinster/Ireland), Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Ireland), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Ireland); Maro Itoje (capt, Saracens/England), James Ryan (Leinster/Ireland); Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Ireland), Tom Curry (Sale Sharks/England), Jack Conan (Leinster/Ireland).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster/Ireland), Ellis Genge (Bristol Bears/England), Will Stuart (Bath/England), Ollie Chessum (Leicester Tigers/England), Jac Morgan (Ospreys/Wales), Ben Earl (Saracens/England), Alex Mitchell (Northampton Saints/England), Owen Farrell (Saracens/England).
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU).
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (NZR), Andrea Piardi (FIR).
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU).
FPRO: Richard Kelly (NZR).
Overall head-to-head: Played 25, Australia 6 wins, Lions 19 wins.
Last seven meetings:
2001: Australia 13 Lions 29; Australia 35 Lions 14; Australia 29 Lions 23
2013: Australia 21 Lions 23; Australia 16 Lions 15; Australia 16 Lions 41
2025: Australia 19 Lions 24. Australia 26 Lions 29
Forecast: Lions to win.
